This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 9, 2026 - November 15, 2026

ROUND after round of state polls, the political equation in Peninsular Malaysia is becoming clearer and clearer.

While Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) and PAS-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) continue to consolidate their cooperation under the banner of Penyatuan Ummah (Malay unity), Pakatan Harapan (PH) has struck an 11th-hour electoral pact with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), its former ally whose defection in the 2020 Sheraton Move brought down the PH 1.0 federal government.

Melaka, which goes to the polls on Nov 14, serves as the final testing ground for these evolving political realignments ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).

The state’s ethnic diversity and urban-rural divide have historically shaped its electoral landscape, allowing different political coalitions to establish their respective strongholds (see electoral map).

Long regarded as a BN stronghold, Melaka has traditionally seen the Umno-led coalition dominate its predominantly Malay rural constituencies. Its substantial non-Malay minority, however, has also enabled PH, particularly DAP, to establish a foothold in the state’s urban centre.

For BN and PN, the objective is to defend their existing strongholds while making further inroads into PH-held constituencies.

PH, meanwhile, hopes its pact with Bersatu can arrest a string of recent electoral setbacks. But Bersatu enters the race severely weakened following its falling-out with PAS in June and a wave of high-profile defections among its Melaka leadership.

Among those who switched allegiances to Wawasan — the splinter party led by former Bersatu secretary-general Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin — are Masjid Tanah MP Datuk Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, as well as N24 Bemban incumbent Dr Mohd Yadzil Yaakub, who is defending his state seat under Wawasan.

Whether PH and Bersatu can overcome their bitter history and convert an easy understanding into actual votes remains an open question, especially as the two parties are still locked in direct clashes across several state seats.

Adding to the uncertainty is Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama), launched just over five months ago by former PKR leader Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli.

Despite its newcomer status, Bersama has already demonstrated its potential to influence electoral outcomes, particularly in constituencies where PH has traditionally enjoyed stronger support.

With three distinct political forces competing across Melaka’s diverse landscape, the Nov 14 contest will offer a crucial preview of how the broader battle for Peninsular Malaysia will unfold in GE16.
 

Read also:
MELAKA: ELECTION WAR DRUMS BEATING | A tested partnership versus an uneasy alliance
MELAKA: ELECTION WAR DRUMS BEATING | DAP faces tough fight to hold ground in Ayer Keroh

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