Johor: Election War Drums Beating: Fragmented politics raises stakes in Johor

Monday 05 Oct 2026

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This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 25, 2026 - May 31, 2026

THE political turbulence within both Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and the People’s Justice Party, or Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) could add another layer of unpredictability to the next Johor state election, at a time when the state’s political landscape is already becoming increasingly fragmented.

Within Bersatu, tensions over leadership and direction have fuelled concerns over party unity, especially after the removal of former deputy president Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, which reportedly triggered a wave of division dissolutions and internal unrest in Johor.

For Bersatu, the stakes in Johor are particularly high. The state is widely viewed as a key battleground for the party as its president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin hails from Johor and still commands considerable influence among segments of the Malay electorate.

However, prolonged uncertainty within the party leadership risks weakening Bersatu’s grassroots machinery, particularly in mixed and semi-urban constituencies where Perikatan Nasional (PN) had hoped to capitalise on Malay vote fragmentation and dissatisfaction towards the unity government.

Bersatu currently holds two Johor state seats — Bukit Kepong and Endau — while its PN ally, Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), controls Maharani.

In the last state election, PN emerged as runner-up in 27 seats it contested, with several losses decided by razor-thin margins, including Bukit Pasir and Serom, where the coalition lost by around 1% and 3.1% respectively.

In what is expected to be a tightly fought contest, even a slight dip in voter turnout or weaknesses in campaign coordination could hand an advantage to Barisan Nasional (BN), whose machinery is widely seen by political observers as more battle-ready and disciplined on the ground.

The Johor election will also serve as a crucial test for PN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, marking his first major electoral battle since taking over the helm of the opposition coalition earlier this year.

For PN, the stakes go beyond Johor itself. A strong showing could reinforce confidence in the coalition’s future direction under its new leadership. But a poor performance may deepen existing doubts and cast a shadow over the bloc’s prospects heading into the next general election.

At the same time, PKR is also facing its own internal turmoil following the departure of former ministers Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, who have since taken over a small political party, Parti Bersama Malaysia, and pledged to build what they describe as a “third force” in Malaysian politics.

Although Bersama’s actual strength has yet to be tested electorally, the party appears to have a relatively clear target demographic — fence-sitting and reform-minded voters who may not be strongly attached to any political party but had previously leaned towards Pakatan Harapan (PH) in hopes of seeing institutional reform and political change.

“We are monitoring the situation closely, and there is concern because the political field here is already crowded,” a Democratic Action Party (DAP) grassroots member, who declined to be named, told The Edge during the PH Convention at Persada Johor on May 17.

A look at the 2022 Johor state election results shows that five out of the 12 seats won by PH were secured with margins below 10%. Four of those seats were won by margins of less than 5%, including Bukit Batu — the only seat won by PKR — where the victory margin was just 0.6%.

Even within the Greater Johor Bahru area, the Johor Jaya seat — won by DAP — was secured with a margin of only 3.9%.

“The third force may not have a realistic chance of winning, but it can definitely split votes and reduce our chances,” the grassroots member said.

To put matters into perspective, the three major political blocs — PH, BN and PN — have announced plans to contest all 56 seats in the coming election. Meanwhile, Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda), another opposition third-force party, has indicated that it is targeting between five and 10 seats.

This raises the possibility that nearly every constituency could see at least a three-cornered fight, increasing the risk of of vote splitting and making the electoral landscape far more unpredictable.

Nevertheless, Johor DAP leaders insist that three-cornered fights are increasingly unavoidable, given the current political realities.

“If we do not contest all the seats, it would effectively give BN or PN a jalan mudah [a free pass],” said Johor DAP vice-chairman Sheikh Umar Bagharib Ali.

While acknowledging that the political situation has become increasingly complex and may pose challenges for PH’s campaign narrative, Sheikh Umar said the coalition remained “more than ready” to face whatever challenges lie ahead.

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