WITH each passing week, it becomes more apparent that the next election cycle is fast approaching, and Johor looks set to be ground zero. Johor’s vast size — at over 19,000 sq km, it is the country’s fifth-largest state by land area — ethnic diversity, and urban and rural dynamics allow different political parties and coalitions to establish regional strongholds (see electoral map).

In the current state assembly, Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) commands a comfortable two-thirds majority, holding 40 out of 56 seats, something it will be looking to maintain or build on in the coming polls.

Pakatan Harapan (PH), meanwhile, will be looking to regain momentum after its Sabah upset last November. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) has served as the coalition’s backbone in the state, particularly in urban and Chinese-majority constituencies stretching from Johor Bahru to Kluang.

Unlike its northern and eastern strongholds in the peninsula, Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) presence in Johor is limited. That said, it made inroads on winning malay votes in the previous state polls as well as general election — discernible through its capture of some malay-dominant seats. 

On the fringes, the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) will be looking to retain its single seat in Puteri Wangsa, held by its current acting president, Amira Aisya Abd Aziz.

More than just a state election, the Johor polls are shaping up to be a national bellwether — one that could determine the future of alliances, test the durability of the unity government, and shape strategies heading into the 16th general election.