KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 9): Khairy Jamaluddin’s office on the third floor of a shoplot at Damansara Heights — an affluent residential area in Kuala Lumpur — doubles up as a mini studio for his podcast recording. Many heavyweight politicians and ministers have been to this posh office for the Keluar Sekejap podcast.

In dark T-shirt and jeans, Khairy, the former health minister who was at one time touted to be the future prime minister, strolls into his office to meet The Edge. After exchanging the usual pleasantries, he asks his aide, "What's this about?", and the aide explains that The Edge wants to speak to him about the upcoming state elections on Saturday, Aug 12.

“Oh how boring… how inconsequential. Why are we even doing this?” teases the man popularly known as KJ, who is sitting out the elections, but has been spotted on campaign trail helping to pull votes for some of his friends. On that note, the one and a half hour interview begins.

Edge: This is the first time since 2008 that you are not part of the elections and are looking from the outside. What are your thoughts about it?

KJ: It's quite weird. As a former politician, you know this is your bread and butter. It's like you are watching everyone playing football, but are not out there playing. But, as I said, I am starting to look at other things. Life can’t just be about one thing. Then you're setting yourself up for systemic risk. If that fails, then you fail, right? 

Edge: Does it mean there's no comeback in politics for you?

KJ: So, that's like an internal battle, right?  There have been some offers, but I don’t see a clear path. The choices available are completely uninspired.

Edge: If you don't mind, we heard that someone told you that you could be the next prime minister. What are your thoughts on that since you seem to want out of politics?

KJ: I said it myself, I wanted to be [prime minister]. But, after I left, my life perspective changed after a life altering event. It’s ok, if it doesn't happen it doesn't happen. I am 47, I've been a minister three times and a member of Parliament three times. I don't mean this condescendingly, but it's not a big thing anymore to become a minister, you know. There are other goals in life I want to chase. So, unless it's for a significant promotion — which is the top job, for which I don't see a path right now — why rinse and repeat something that causes considerable pressure on you, and is detrimental to your well-being?

Edge: So far, what have you heard from the ground in the past one week since nomination day?

KJ: This election is going to be decided by three things. One is Malay votes, second is non-Malay turnout, and third is transferability of the votes. Normally, non-Malays, especially Chinese votes — that vote is not in question. If they turn out, they'll vote for PH, 95%. It's just whether they want to turn out or not. They will not be able to bring themselves to vote against PH, regardless of who the candidates are.

On the Malay vote, that is a different issue — that's split. So, the question then comes to the transferability of that Malay vote: Will BN votes go to PN or PH?

PH and BN hope for a perfect 100% transferability. I don't think that's going to happen. At 50% transferability, then it's going to be 3:3 status quo, which is my call. But PN will make inroads in Selangor and maybe Negeri Sembilan. At a slightly higher transferability (transfer of votes from BN to PN), I won't say PH (PH-BN) is in trouble, but that is when things will get a bit dicey. 

Edge: Do you think it is going to be the status quo? But with PN making inroads in Selangor and maybe Negeri Sembilan?

KJ: Although I said it is 3:3, the results will be different in the PH states. I do believe that will be the case in PN or PAS states — their dominance will continue. I don’t think PH-BN will come anywhere close to winning in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.

In the PH states, that's where the transferability will not be perfect between BN and PH, and vice versa. For instance, if you are a PH voter and now in your area there is no PH candidate that is contesting but there is a BN candidate contesting because they made a deal or whatever — for instance in Dusun Tua, where a DAP seat is now given to BN — you are more likely to throw it to BN than PN, especially if you are non-Malay.

But if you were a Malay voter who voted for Umno last time and then they put a PH candidate there — it doesn't matter what race — and no more Umno candidate, just PH and a PN candidate there — you might throw it to PN.

Edge: Basically, PN is gaining ground?

KJ: We spoke nice things about the Madani narrative but I don’t think an ordinary Joe in Jerlun or Sungai Petani knows about that. I’m not seeing enough evidence in the Malay ground of a fight back from PH. They (PH) clearly are not reaching out as they used to.

Edge: Based on your observation, PN is making good progress whereas the other side — not really?

KJ: I think they (PH-BN) can do better. I think one thing PN lacks is that they are a bit thin at the top. They don't have good front people, front men and women who can lead at the top. So they're very reliant on Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, (Datuk Seri Muhammad) Sanusi (Md Nor) and (Tan Sri Abdul) Hadi (Awang), who have to do the heavy lifting. They (PN) don't have a slate of people to go around.

But having said that, PH is quite reliant on Anwar as well now. They could run this campaign much better. So, bereft of any big mistakes and all things being equal, this campaign by chatter, campaign in WhatsApp group, this disquiet of the Malay community — which actually I remember in the last GE had blindsided me,  I didn't expect PN could win so much in Sungai Buloh and they did — it’s reminiscent of that.

Edge: What did you realise that you missed in PN in GE15?

KJ: I really thought we were giving PH a run for their money as far as the Malay votes were concerned in Sungai Buloh. The guy from PAS, who was contesting for PN, didn't even go out to campaign. But, I had an instinctive sense that there was this disquiet and chatter in the Malay ground — that they didn't want to give [the seat] to PH. They also bought the notion that one vote for me would be one vote for (Datuk Seri Ahmad) Zahid (Hamidi), so they said it was better to give it to PN.

Towards the end, I had the sense that that was going to happen, and sure enough they (PN) took enough votes during GE15. The guy who won in Sungai Buloh took 50,000, I took 48,000 and they (PN) took 27,000 votes. That's clearly enough to show. So, at this point, I don’t think PH has done enough to change that. I see the same disquiet now. You can't see it, but you can feel it.

Edge: What are your views for Negeri Sembilan for this state election?

KJ: Negeri Sembilan is a bit better than Selangor for PH-BN, because Umno has some added value there. They (BN) are stronger [in Negeri Sembilan] than in Selangor, as they have more recognisable candidates. Not so problematic. If you look at Negeri Sembilan’s [vote] transferability, Umno is stronger there and they can assure more transferability between PH-BN. Whereas in Selangor, there is no Umno because they are useless here, they lost three elections in a row. PH is carrying the weight and doing the heavy lifting in Selangor. So in Selangor, you're firing one engine and in Negeri Sembilan you are firing two engines. That is why I doubt Negeri Sembilan will fall.

Edge: We heard that it is likely to be 5:1 or 4:2. What are your thoughts?

KJ: I doubt it. Because Penang is out of the question. For Negeri Sembilan, I'm just thinking about my old seat, where I won three times. To flip that seat is difficult. Umno is entrenched there. They don't quite see... the “Zahid stench”. [It] does not travel there.  So that's why I always say that if there is a four-two, it is going to be Selangor. But then I've looked at the numbers again and again, and flipping Selangor is not easy. And every survey that I've seen shows (Datuk Seri) Amirudin (Shari) (the current Selangor MB) is popular. He (Amirudin) recognises that this is a tough fight. He recognises that the fight is in the Malay grounds.

I believe the urban seats will hold in Selangor. But, in northern Selangor, seats will most likely fall to PN, such as Sabak Bernam, Tanjung Karang and Sungai Besar. Then you have Paya Jaras in Sungai Buloh, where I won straight, which could also fall. So you will see an increased number of PN voters, but I don't think enough to win. I'll be very surprised if they win.

Edge: What everyone is talking about is what if Umno fares badly in the upcoming state election and the dagger comes for Zahid?

KJ: You know one question I've asked Amirudin and Nik Nazmi (Nik Ahmad) is that if Umno completely screws up — meaning out of 106 seats or whatever it is, and they win by a handful of single digits, will you stay with them for the GE (general election)? Because clearly they’re a liability right now and they might even drag you down. You know you don't have to craft a very advanced political strategy to discredit BN, just point out that Zahid is there.

They couldn't answer the question and it was a naughty and mischievous question. They couldn’t answer the question because it goes against the present arrangement. But I think they acknowledged that question because that's what everyone wants to know. If Umno doesn't add any value, in fact if it destroys your value, then why should you continue to be together at the next election?

You have to remember this — this secretariat of the unity government was not really (Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim) who pushed for it. It was Zahid who pushed for it because he realises there is more for him to benefit, than for Anwar. But whether he (Anwar) takes Umno and Zahid to the next election, it will depend on what happens at the state elections. Of course, Anwar being Anwar, he'll run through the motions, he'll maintain the veneer of this PH-BN unity, until the time comes for him to decide.

Edge: So, what will happen to Umno?

KJ: Nothing. If Umno is wiped out in the elections, which I think they will... They’ll win some seats, as there are some seats which PH will support them and there are some seats, for instance in my parliamentary constituency in Rembau, where they will win because Umno is strong there. But, overall, they will do extremely badly. But there will be no recriminations because I've been sacked. So that's it. No one’s going to ask for his (Zahid’s) head. Everyone's just going to shrug and get on with life.

Edge: You don't expect there will be (more) infighting within the party if that happens? 

KJ: No, there are only eunuchs left in the party — everyone else has been sacked or suspended.

First of all, there's again the analogy that there's no path to power for BN anymore. You don't even need Umno because Anwar has secured Sabah and Sarawak. What is the upside for them (BN members) to move? Even if PH does badly say 3:3 and significant inroads by PN — why would you remove your support from Anwar strategically? Even if it's 4:2, it doesn't affect the federal government.

Umno is in a very precarious situation because even if Umno pulls out now, Anwar still has the numbers. So, Umno needs Anwar now. He (Anwar) planned this quite well. So Umno — just shrug off four years until the next GE. They have enough time. Now it’s time to enjoy the patronage and all that kind of stuff.

Edge: When you say Umno will do badly this time, is it because the Malay voters don't find the party appealing anymore or is it because the party has lost its relevance?

KJ: The loss of relevance has been happening for some time, arguably since 2018. Although some will argue maybe since 2008. In 2008, when I was there, there was a tsunami. But then, you know, it wasn't the end of the road. There was a strong possibility and opportunity to rebuild the party. But by 2018, it had definitely [become] the catastrophic sort of event that saw Umno staring at the death bed. It's not dead, but it's been on the deathbed since then.

I think more than anything else, it's the sense of the violation of whatever modicum of trust that the Malay voters still had towards Umno. This is both anecdotal and I've seen some survey numbers as well, but he (Zahid) as a reason is quite high up there.

Q: As a person who has been with BN all that time, don't you feel sad about this happening to Umno?

KJ: Of course, of course I feel sad. This was my political party and still is my political party because I didn't leave — I was sacked. I didn't choose to leave the party. But, you know, there's only so much you can do if something or someone you love insists on self-harm. You tried to help, but after a while, if it or they continue to self-harm, what can you do?

Edge: How about the “green wave”, do you think they are really making serious inroads?

KJ: No, I don't like the term “green wave” and I've written against it. A “green wave” suggests something deeply ideological, which, yes, of course there is some desire for some PN voters to want more public manifestations of religion and things like that.

But that's not the real reason why they (PN) are gaining ground. The Malay voters just don’t want to give it (their votes) to PH-BN because they can't stomach Umno.

Edge: Is DAP part of the equation?

KJ: Partly, but there is of course Zahid plus the suspicions about DAP. I think the stereotype about DAP is a bit unfair. But, they (DAP) do from time to time, let their guard slip and things come out. For instance, I saw a video of Hannah Yeoh speaking to voters saying “Do you want PAS MB in Selangor?”, that is the same when PAS went around with “Do you want a DAP government?” It’s the same thing. Or you can argue PAS is more conservative, but it is still the same thing.

It’s not a “green wave” or Islamic extremism. No way. It's Malay dissatisfaction about Umno, the unity government and about economics. That one (economics) I'm sympathetic towards Anwar because that is not something he can actually do (anything about) immediately.

Edge: So you don’t agree with the analysis that Undi18, the young voters — especially the ones in east coast that they grew up with their religious teachers — got influenced by them and that has translated into their voting pattern?

KJ: No. I mean they are a bit more conservative, but I don't think that's their primary motivation for voting.  They're conservative. They are — they are affected by these kinds of things (religious teachings), yes. But to suggest that an extremist “green wave” is very dangerous.

There are many other reasons — such as not being happy with the current BN situation, which is their default party. They have a very clear Malay choice in Bersatu and PAS. Yes, [there’s a] little conservatism, but let’s face it — Umno also played with that before. And there’s some economic dissatisfaction.

Edge: What do you think about the ministers that are also contesting in the state polls?

KJ: I don't think they should. There's no reason why they should contest. What do they want to prove? I don't know why (Transport Minister) Anthony Loke is contesting. Maybe because there's some internal Negeri Sembilan DAP factor that needs to see him anchoring it. I'm not sure but it’s unnecessary.

For Tok Mat (Defence Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan), it is because he thinks he is the best and doesn't think anyone else can win, unfortunately. As a deputy president of the party (Umno) and now a minister at a relatively senior ministry, I think it is time for him to let go. Unless he is angling to be the MB (menteri besar), which will be a surprise.

On (Datuk Seri) Jalaluddin (Alias), although he is an MP, he is contesting because he wants to be the MB of Negeri Sembilan. His reasoning is a bit better than Tok Mat’s. He has made a tactical calculation that if he contests and BN ends up with more seats than PH (in Negeri Sembilan), then he can ask. If I were him, I would ask for it.  

Edge: Just to pick your brains, where do you see the country going in five years?

KJ: My fear is that there could still be a hung Parliament in five years —that it’d be completely divided. So coming back to PN, it’s not about the so-called “green wave”. It's Malay dissatisfaction. I know about the present unity government and also about economics, which I'm sympathetic towards Anwar. Anwar is in a very tough place and I don't envy him, or anybody for that matter, who ends up becoming prime minister because they have to make some very difficult choices.

You may watch The Edge's interview with KJ by clicking the following video clips:
‘To pull off large-scale corruption is difficult’
Is KJ the politician making a comeback?
KJ gives his predictions ahead of state elections
Targeted subsidies, pension reform and GST on KJ’s fix it list

Visit this link for everything about the State Polls 2023.