KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 7): Soybean could overtake palm as the world’s top vegetable oil by production within the next six years, said one of the industry’s top analysts.
Soybean oil is gaining ground on the back of expanding cultivated areas, improved varieties with higher yields and oil content, greater drought resistance, better labour-to-land ratios, economies of scale and lower production costs, said ISTA Mielke GmbH chief executive Thomas Mielke.
Output of palm oil, meanwhile, is slowing from insufficient replanting, Ganoderma disease, rising production costs, reduced fertiliser application and growing sustainability requirements.
While the assertion is still subject to multiple supply and demand factors, “it is, in my opinion, a high probability”, as soybean output continues to rise driven by South America, he said.
Mielke was speaking during a panel discussion at the Malaysian Palm Oil Forum 2026, organised by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.
Palm oil has held the position as the world’s largest-produced vegetable oil since the early 2000s, with Indonesia and Malaysia accounting for much of global output. Palm and soybean oil together account for about 56% of global vegetable oil consumption.
The annual production growth of palm oil is expected to average about 1.3 million tonnes between 2020 and 2030, less than half the average annual increase of 2.9 million tonnes recorded between 2010 and 2020, according to Mielke’s forecasts.
Global soybean crushings would increase by about 7.5 million tonnes in 2026/2027, compared with an increase of about 16 million tonnes in 2025/2026. Soybean stocks are also expected to decline. Current estimates imply a further increase in oilmeal usage of close to 10 million tonnes next season.
“While this is trailing the annual expansion of the preceding three seasons, such growth will not be achieved at current high oilmeal prices,” he added.