This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on August 10, 2026 - August 16, 2026

BARISAN Nasional (BN) appears to have found a winning formula to reassert its dominance in Malaysia’s political landscape, as its alliance with opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the Negeri Sembilan state election helped the coalitions secure a two-thirds majority in the state legislative assembly.

BN and PN divided the 36 state seats between them to take on Pakatan Harapan (PH), avoiding three-cornered fights that would have split the Malay votes on which both rely heavily. Their consolidation paid off and they retained their 19 existing seats and wrested six more from PH on Aug 1.

If the Johor state election demonstrated that PN votes could serve BN — with PN wiped out as its supporters backed BN — the polls in Negeri Sembilan showed the reverse, with BN supporters rallying behind PN.

Umno won all 16 seats it contested, while MCA won two of seven. PAS took four of five seats and Parti Wawasan Negara, led by Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin, garnered three seats on its election debut.

This strengthens the case for the same strategy elsewhere, potentially at the national level in the 16th general election, particularly in Peninsular Malaysia where the contest will be closest.

An analysis combining BN and PN votes from GE15 suggests the partners could win as many as 122 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, 28 more than the 94 they actually won amid multi-cornered fights in 2022.

If the maths is proven right, BN and PN will have 10 seats more than the simple majority of 112 seats needed to form the government. This means they do not need any help from other parties, including Sabah and Sarawak.

There could be further upside: in the recent Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, BN and PN performed better than this simple arithmetic suggests. The question is how the seats would be potentially divided. Which coalition — and more importantly, which party — would get into the driver’s seat in Putrajaya, and claim the right to the prime minister post?

Today, PAS is a far larger force in the Dewan Rakyat, with 43 members of parliament (MPs) compared with Umno’s 20. PN also includes Wawasan which, like Umno, is likely eyeing seats held by Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia. Wawasan is a splinter party from Bersatu, just as Bersatu broke away from Umno in 2015.

The Edge’s analysis suggests that PAS will remain the largest party in the Dewan Rakyat under this arrangement, although seat negotiations could change that. Here is how the allocation could play out.

The natural starting point is for each party to defend the seats won in GE15. PH and BN largely followed a similar principle when they collaborated in the 2023 state elections.

PAS therefore would defend its 43 seats, while BN would defend 23 — Umno’s 20, MCA’s two and MIC’s one. The complication is that 13 of PAS’ seats were taken from Umno in GE15, while Umno did not wrest any from PAS.

Take Kuala Selangor (P096), which Parti Amanah Negara won in GE15, with Umno as runner-up. Under this formula, Umno would contest the seat and, if PAS’ votes were added, would surpass Amanah in the numbers game.

This could give Umno another 16 seats, lifting its tally to 36. Together with MCA and MIC, BN could gain 24 seats now held by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) (18), Amanah (three) and DAP (three), bringing the coalition’s tally to 47.

Meanwhile, PAS would gain only four — three from Amanah and one from Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) — raising its tally to 47.

Umno, PAS and Wawasan would then have to divide Bersatu’s seats if the party were no longer part of PN. That process has already begun. In the Negeri Sembilan state election, Bersatu lost Labu (N20) to Umno, and Gemas (N34) to Wawasan.

Bersatu won 28 parliamentary seats in the peninsula in GE15. Of these, 17 are held by MPs who have expressed support for former deputy president Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, who now leads Wawasan. Assuming Hamzah’s bloc of at least 18 MPs, including himself, retains their seats, the other 10 Bersatu seats would be for PAS, Umno and Wawasan to negotiate.

Eight have traditionally been held or contested by Umno before Bersatu came into the picture. Of the remaining two, PAS has a strong presence in Bukit Gantang (P059), while MCA has traditionally contested Padang Serai (P017).

Taking those eight seats would lift Umno to 44 in Peninsular Malaysia, behind PAS’ 48. BN would have 56 seats overall, against PN’s 66.

But Umno also won six parliamentary seats in Sabah in GE15. Counting those would raise its total to 50, potentially making Umno the single biggest party. However, BN would still have only 62 seats against PN’s 66.

To become the largest coalition in the Dewan Rakyat, BN would therefore need to negotiate for more seats from PN.

Even so, 56 peninsula seats would be better for BN than the 44 it could secure under a PH-BN collaboration using the same formula. It would also mark BN’s strongest showing in Peninsular Malaysia since 2013, when it won 73 seats. It secured 46 in 2018.

Recent elections suggest there could be further upside. Based on GE15 voting patterns, BN was projected to win 42 of Johor’s 56 state seats but took 48 last month. In Negeri Sembilan, BN-PN was projected to win 24 of 36 seats but took 25, with Repah (N36) being the additional seat.

Seat swaps will almost certainly be part of the negotiations, especially where incumbents hold seats that are not traditional strongholds. These include Padang Besar (P001) in Perlis and Baling (P016) in Kedah, now held by PAS but were taken from Umno only in 2022.

Nevertheless, PAS is the biggest party in parliament for the first time and may be reluctant to surrender that leverage to Umno.

While PAS deputy president Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man has said a BN-PN pact should not fall apart over one or two seats, “it will be difficult” for PN to concede seats, says a PN insider. “There’s not only PAS and Umno. Wawasan will want some of the spoils too.”

BN could also argue that it deserved more. Recent polls suggest PAS support has contracted to 2018 levels, when it won only 18 seats, according to political analyst Bridget Welsh.

Welsh, who is honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute Malaysia, says “BN carried PN” amid weaker support for PAS, while Wawasan lacks grassroots presence.

The first hurdle will be dividing Bersatu seats between Wawasan and Umno.

These include Machang (P029) in Kelantan, held by Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal, and Tasek Gelugor (P042) in Penang, held by Datuk Wan Saiful Wan Jan. Both are staunch Hamzah supporters, but Umno also has a strong presence in the constituencies.

Then there are tougher seats such as Pagoh (P143) in Johor, held for seven terms by Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, and urban constituencies such as Setiawangsa (P118) and Bandar Tun Razak (P124), where a BN-PN pact could win with thin margins.

BN components MCA and MIC may also have to share seats with their PN counterparts, Malaysian Indian People Party (MIPP) and Gerakan.

PH could emerge as the biggest loser, falling to just 43 parliamentary seats in the peninsula from 71 in 2022. Only four of these would be Malay-majority constituencies.

PKR could be left with as few as 11 seats. Its grassroots loyalty could also be tested, as four relatively safe seats are held by MPs associated with Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli: Pandan (P100), Subang (P104), Petaling Jaya (P105) and Ampang (P099). Rafizi, who left PKR last year, now leads Parti Bersama Malaysia with former Setiawangsa MP Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.

DAP could retain as many as 30 seats, while Amanah could be reduced to two.

However, the situation remains fluid. Negeri Sembilan and Johor were small parts of the bigger equation, and negotiations for certain seats could turn out to be more complicated in reality. Further, the political sentiment is more nuanced in the current landscape and could swing quickly.

“[The analysis] must be grounded in local data. It’s still a bit early … we need to see [seat negotiations] in Melaka [state polls] first,” says Welsh, as there will be some pressure for BN to accommodate PN after the latter gave the former a big runway in both Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

This is not the first time PAS and Umno have reconciled in recent years. In September 2019, PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang and Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi signed the Muafakat Nasional political charter at the World Trade Centre Kuala Lumpur, in an effort to unite Malay-Muslim political parties. Both parties were then in the opposition.

The pact later collapsed after PAS insisted on bringing Bersatu into the fold despite Umno’s objections. Bersatu, a splinter from Umno once led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, had helped PH oust BN in GE14 in May 2018.

PAS and Bersatu went on to form PN. From February 2020 to November 2021, PAS, Bersatu and Umno were all part of the federal government, first under Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and later under then-Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

In June, amid talk of a loose BN-PN collaboration, Zahid said Umno had “closed the chapter” on Muafakat Nasional and had no plans to revive it. A month later, Hadi said PAS and Umno differed only on secondary matters, not on fundamental principles.

Signs of disagreement have already emerged in Melaka, where BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi unilaterally declared that BN would defend all 21 seats it holds in the 28-seat state legislative assembly, even before negotiations with PN had begun.

As the saying goes, a day is a long time in politics, and there are no permanent friends or enemies. The arithmetic may be simple, but not the politics.

Read also:
Outcome of polls goes beyond identity politics
Negeri Sembilan election: A lens on Malaysia’s politics
Negeri Sembilan state seat composition over the years