This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 20, 2026 - July 26, 2026

MINUTES after Barisan Nasional (BN) declared a landslide victory in the Johor election on July 11, its chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was already expressing hope that a “blue wave” would sweep the next political battles in Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and then the 16th general election (GE16).

Zahid, who is deputy prime minister, was confident because the Johor election results were BN’s strongest performance at the polls in 18 years. The coalition won 48 of the state’s 56 seats, up from 40 previously, while its rival Pakatan Harapan (PH) was reduced to eight seats from 12 in 2022 and Perikatan Nasional (PN) failed to retain even a single seat.

“The so-called ‘blue wave’ will be a valid analysis only if Umno [the main component party of the BN coalition] wins big in Negeri Sembilan and Melaka. Johor is a unique state and you cannot use ‘blue wave’ to describe it,” says Dr James Chin, political analyst and professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania.

That argument is based on the fact that Johor has traditionally been a BN stronghold, except for its defeat in the 2018 general election. Unlike in Johor, where BN was defending its own record in government, it is seeking to unseat the incumbent administration in Negeri Sembilan.

When the Negeri Sembilan state assembly was dissolved in June, PH held 17 of the 36 seats, followed by BN with 14 seats and PN with five.

For BN, the election battleground in Negeri Sembilan differs significantly from Johor, where the coalition had largely leveraged the popularity of Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, one of the coalition’s strongest assets.

As the incumbent state government, BN also benefited from its “Bangsa Johor” narrative, strong economic performance, growing investment in sectors such as data centres and logistics, and major infrastructure projects linked to the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. However, those advantages may not be easily replicated in Negeri Sembilan.

“[One of the] important side factors also, although not openly discussed, was the widespread perception that the palace supported BN in Johor. The situation is very different because Negeri Sembilan is linked to a royal dispute. The dynamics are totally different,” says Chin.

The outcome of the Johor election also highlighted a political realignment among Malay-based parties, where BN appeared to benefit from a friendlier PAS, the largest component party in PN.

Although PAS contested under the PN banner, the party adopted a less confrontational approach towards BN in constituencies where PH was contesting, showing that defeating PH appeared to be a priority.

That raises questions about whether the Johor election strategy was a one-off tactical arrangement or the early signs of a broader political understanding between BN and PAS in the run-up to GE16. At the same time, it has also placed renewed attention on Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s (Bersatu) future role in PN, particularly as the party has now decided to campaign under its own logo in Negeri Sembilan rather than using the coalition’s flag.

Even though PAS failed to win any seats in Johor, observers believe it could still benefit if BN reciprocates its gesture by endorsing PAS representatives as appointed state assemblymen, where state laws allow. This would enable PAS to make its presence felt in the state legislature.

According to Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia, PAS could use the appointed assemblyman mechanism in states where such provisions exist to maintain a political foothold.

“[Through the appointed state assemblyman mechanism,] PAS can still be appointed as assemblymen, just like in Sabah after the 2020 state election. It is almost like a replication of what PAS was doing in Sabah to gain a foothold. But whether the higher-ups are receptive remains to be seen,” says Oh.

An appointed state assemblyman is a legislator selected by the state government rather than elected directly by voters. Such representatives have debating and voting powers but cannot become the menteri besar or sit in the state executive council.

Currently, five states — Sabah, Melaka, Pahang, Johor and Terengganu — have provisions allowing appointed assemblymen.

Unlike Johor, however, Negeri Sembilan has no provisions for appointed state assemblymen. Any cooperation between BN and PAS in the state would therefore have to succeed on its own electoral merits, even though there are already early signs of tacit cooperation ahead of nomination day on July 18.

“I think Umno would like to have a partnership with PAS. They think that, together with PAS, they can unseat Anwar Ibrahim as prime minister at GE16,” says Chin.

“But I’m not sure Negeri Sembilan will work as well as Johor [for BN]. We will have to wait for the results in Negeri Sembilan and Melaka before saying that.”

For PH, the Johor outcome is also likely to reignite debate over how the coalition should respond if electoral cooperation between BN and PAS becomes more pronounced in future elections. At the same time, analysts say PH’s own internal dynamics could further complicate its response.

According to Oh, DAP itself is divided over its relationship with Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), its coalition partner in PH. One faction wants the party to remain in PH alongside PKR, while another believes DAP should leave the coalition and sever ties with its long-time ally. More broadly, for Chin, any visible cooperation between BN and PAS would make it increasingly difficult for PH’s component parties to trust Umno or BN again.

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Reform bill delays expose strains in unity government
Johor state seat composition over the years