This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 20, 2026 - July 26, 2026

BARISAN Nasional’s (BN) landslide victory in the Johor state election — its best in 18 years — offers early clues as to how several forces could shape Malaysia’s current election cycle.

BN contested on its own and secured a 48-seat supermajority in the 56-seat assembly, gaining eight seats through Umno (three), MCA (four) and MIC (one).

That was just two short of the 50 seats it won in 2008, when BN was still the country’s sole governing coalition.

Some argue that Johor, as Umno’s birthplace and traditional stronghold, has a distinct political landscape that does not reflect national sentiment.

Nonetheless, The Edge’s analysis of voting trends points to a sharp transfer of support from opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) to BN, although Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) popular vote also rose after excluding Muda’s share in 2022.

The results also showed how Parti Bersama Malaysia, led by former PKR number two Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli, split the vote at PH’s expense in at least two seats, even as all 15 Bersama candidates lost their deposits.

Unlike in previous elections, higher turnout also did little to help PH. The coalition was reduced to eight seats after DAP lost four to MCA and MIC.

DAP now holds six seats, while PKR and Amanah have one each. Six of PH’s eight seats were won with margins below 10%.

PKR captured Puteri Wangsa (N41), previously held by Muda, after defeating MCA by 6.7% in a five-cornered fight. However, it lost Bukit Batu (N51) to MIC.

Nearly 1.9 million Johoreans cast their ballots on July 11, representing 69.57% of voters, compared with 1.43 million, or 54.92%, in 2022.

With the higher turnout, BN’s share of the popular vote more than doubled to 59.7% from 29.3%.

An initial reading suggests that much of the increase came from PN’s voter base. PN stayed out of 24 seats, with PAS calling on its supporters to vote for BN where the opposition coalition was absent.

However, the swing went beyond those seats. Voters largely abandoned PN in the 33 constituencies it contested, indicating that BN gained more than just a tactical vote transfer.

A total of 21 PN candidates lost their deposits after failing to secure at least 12.5% of votes cast. Johor is now the second state after Sarawak where PN has no representation in the state legislature.

PAS failed to retain its sole seat in Maharani (N15), performing worse than its breakaway faction Amanah, which narrowly held on to Simpang Jeram (N13).

Bersatu lost both its seats, including Bukit Kepong (N07), located in Pagoh — the supposed stronghold of party president and former Johor menteri besar Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

BN, meanwhile, secured 13 seats with margins above 50% — 12 for Umno and one for MIC — a sharp contrast to 2022, when it had no such safe seats. Just four of its victories were decided by less than 10%.

Umno’s vote share rose by between 11 and 20 percentage points in the three seats it captured from PN in multi-cornered contests at Bukit Kepong, Maharani and Endau (N32).

It also recorded significantly wider margins in its seven straight fights, all against Amanah or PKR. The largest was an 81% margin against PKR in Tanjung Surat (N39).

MCA recaptured Jementah (N02) in a three-cornered fight against DAP and PAS. PAS’ vote share fell by 10.7 percentage points, while MCA’s rose by 8.7 points, allowing it to defeat DAP by 3.4%.

PN was also absent in four of the five seats that MCA and MIC took from PH. BN’s vote share in those constituencies rose by between nine and 17 percentage points.

Among them was Tangkak (N10), where Malays make up 40.8% of the electorate. After a three-cornered contest in 2022, the seat saw a straight fight between MCA and DAP this time.

MCA’s vote share rose by 17.4 percentage points, helping it win by 12.8% and reversing DAP’s 1.9% victory in 2022.

Interestingly, PH’s popular vote across the state rose to 32.6% from 29.9% in 2022 (after excluding Muda’s share in the previous election), despite the coalition losing four seats.

The increase was recorded across all three component parties. DAP’s share rose to 15.5% from 13%, PKR’s to 8.7% from 5.9%, and Amanah’s to 8.4% from 7.4%.

The figures suggest that PH retained and even expanded its support in some areas, but way below its peak in 2018 when its vote share was 53% thanks to support from Malay fence-sitters, including through Bersatu which was part of the coalition at the time.

BN’s larger majority can also be partly attributed to Bersama’s presence. The numbers suggest its electoral debut benefited MIC more than MCA.

MIC swept all four seats it contested, including Perling (N46), which MCA lost in a three-cornered fight in 2022. This time, MIC edged out DAP by 2.4% in another three-way contest, with Bersama securing 4.4% of the vote — exceeding the winning margin and potentially decisive.

MIC also captured Bukit Batu from PKR by just 0.5% in a five-cornered contest. Bersama received about 2.3% of the vote, followed by an independent candidate (1.7%) while Muda secured 1.1%.

Johor Jaya (N42) was the only seat MCA won where Bersama also fielded a candidate. MCA defeated DAP by a comfortable 10.9%, while Bersama received 3.1%.

In Stulang (N45), however, DAP narrowly held on, defeating MCA by 623 votes, or 1.7%, in a four-cornered fight. Bersama received 1,372 votes, or 3.7%, ahead of Bersatu’s 1,238 votes, or 3.3%.

Overall, Bersama secured between 0.3% and 5.5% of the vote in the 15 seats it contested. Analysts attributed the weak showing partly to its limited preparation, including a lack of groundwork and candidate training.

Muda also saw all four of its candidates lose their deposits, securing between 1.1% and 9.2% of the vote.

In PH, two parties saw their candidates lose their deposits: PKR in Sri Medan (N18), Johor Lama (N37) and Tanjung Surat, and Amanah in Semarang (N20), Sedili (N36) and Penawar (N38).

After the “proof of concept” in Johor, BN’s collaboration with PN — in essence PAS — is entering the next level, as they are likely to avoid contesting against each other in Negeri Sembilan.

BN won 14 of the state’s 36 seats in 2023, eight of them with margins below 10%, while PAS secured three.

Bersatu, holding two seats, has rejected the collaboration and is not part of PN’s seat allocation talks. It plans to contest under its own logo, setting the stage for clashes with BN.

Rafizi has said Bersama will sit out the Negeri Sembilan election, citing the more intense competition between PH and BN in the state. The decision may help in avoiding the splitting of votes in BN’s favour, as occurred in Johor.

A BN-PAS partnership could threaten PH’s 17-seat grip on Negeri Sembilan. Amanah holds one seat and PKR two, each won by slim margins, while DAP controls 14 seats — half secured by landslide margins of more than 50%.

PH and BN may remain unity government partners at the federal level, with PN in opposition, but state elections are producing increasingly fluid alliances. All eyes are now on the polls in Negeri Sembilan — and potentially Melaka, sooner rather than later.

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Johor state seat composition over the years