This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 6, 2026 - July 12, 2026

AS voters decide who forms Johor’s next government on July 11, the state election has also become a test for a parallel contest: whether Barisan Nasional (BN) and PAS can turn their informal alliance into a workable partnership.

The main contest remains between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH). Yet, other parties, including Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda), are vying for a share of Johor’s 56 state seats — largely positioning themselves as opposition alternatives rather than serious contenders for government.

Nonetheless, in a move that surprised many, PAS appears to be throwing its support behind BN despite contesting 11 seats. Its president, Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang, urged supporters in the 23 constituencies where Perikatan Nasional (PN) is not fielding candidates to vote for BN.

There have been whispers in recent months that BN may tie up with PAS in the 16th General Election (GE16). Hadi Awang’s remark is widely seen as an olive branch — at least toward a friendly party, if not a potential alliance partner.

The state polls will serve as an opportunity for both PAS and Umno to test the waters for the likelihood of an alliance in the race to Putrajaya.

Political observers say the move has revived memories of Muafakat Nasional, the PAS-Umno cooperation formed after BN’s historic defeat in the 2018 general election.

“As it stands, this is more than an informal pact. This is a quiet revival and upgrade of Muafakat Nasional, with Umno expanding to BN, and PAS expanding to include MIPP (Malaysian Indian People’s Party), Pejuang and eventually Wawasan,” political science professor at Sunway University Wong Chin Huat tells The Edge.

According to him, recent exchanges between Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi and Hadi Awang point to a broader attempt to revive the narrative of Malay-Muslim political unity that underpinned the original Muafakat Nasional project.

“The message is very clear: it is about Malay unity. But why is Malay unity so urgent? It is ultimately the Chinese or non-Malay threat narrative. This is a double-edged sword — it may rally Malay nationalist votes but also drive away minority and liberal votes,” says Wong.

If the strategy proves effective, according to him, it could encourage similar arrangements in Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and, eventually, GE16.

As it stands, data from the previous elections shows that PAS’ stance could potentially benefit BN in the 23 seats where PN is not contesting.

PN is contesting 33 of Johor’s 56 seats. Of these, Bersatu is fielding 16 candidates, PAS 11, MIPP five, and Pejuang one, while Gerakan has opted out following disputes over seat allocations.

Of the 23 seats not contested by PN, 14 are straight fights between PH and BN. Seven of these are MCA-DAP contests in Bekok, Tangkak, Bentayan, Yong Peng, Penggaram, Mengkibol and Pekan Nanas.

The remaining seven contests are straight fights between Umno and PH, with BN (Umno) facing PH (Amanah) in Buloh Kasap, Parit Yaani, Machap and Tanjung Surat, while Umno and PH (PKR) square off in Benut, Pulai Sebatang and Kukup.

A review of these constituencies shows that PN secured vote shares ranging from about 9% to 29% in the 2022 state polls. In several seats, this vote share is considerably larger than the winning margin recorded in the previous election in 2018, meaning even a partial transfer of PN votes to BN could alter the electoral outcome.

Tangkak stands out as a seat where BN is likely to benefit from PAS supporters. DAP retained it in 2022 with a narrow 1.9% majority, while PN secured 16% of the vote. The constituency’s relatively balanced ethnic composition — 46.7% Chinese and 40.8% Malay — also makes it more competitive compared with other DAP strongholds.

Broadly, only a few seats were considered difficult for BN to win, such as Bentayan, and the overall outcome still depended on voter turnout.

MCA could emerge as an indirect beneficiary of PAS’ stance. In Bekok, Yong Peng and Pekan Nanas —three MCA-held seats contested against DAP — PN previously secured between 9% and 21% of the vote. A transfer of these votes could significantly widen MCA’s winning margins and make these seats harder for DAP to reclaim.

It should be noted that the 2022 Johor election recorded unusually low participation rates, partly due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Turnout in many constituencies hovered from 50% to 60%, far below the more than 80% seen in the 2018 election.

A high-turnout election in 2026 would likely benefit PH, though the outcome ultimately depends on ground sentiment, which in 2022 appeared to favour the opposite (see sidebar on SR7).

Meanwhile, among the 23 seats where PN is not contesting, five will see three-corner fights between PH, BN and Bersama, while four seats will feature either four- or five-corner contests.

Smaller parties such as Muda and Bersama are unlikely to emerge as major seat winners but could still have an impact on tightly contested constituencies, according to Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociology professor Sivamurugan Pandian.

“Their greatest impact may not necessarily be through winning seats but by attracting younger, first-time and protest voters, potentially affecting vote margins between the larger coalitions,” he tells The Edge.

In such scenarios, even a relatively small vote share can alter outcomes between the two main coalitions, especially in urban and semi-urban seats where younger voters form a significant bloc.

Should PAS supporters heed Hadi Awang’s call, PH — comprising PKR, DAP and Amanah — would face an even tougher battle. That said, his message might also serve as a tailwind for DAP, helping it garner stronger support from Chinese voters in Johor.

Johor DAP chairman Teo Nie Ching has started her election campaign narrative by saying: “One vote for BN is one vote for PAS.”

“To me, it’s very obvious that there is some cooperation between BN and PN,” she adds.

Teo pointed to PAS’ refusal to assist Bersatu while simultaneously urging supporters to reject PH as evidence of shifting political alignments. Although PAS remains a component party of PN, it has stated that it will not campaign for Bersatu candidates in Johor despite contesting under the same coalition banner.

It is also awkward that PH is campaigning against BN in Johor while, at the same time, governing in coalition with BN at the federal level.

Sivamurugan believes that a BN-PAS alliance, if it materialises, is not as straightforward as one plus one equalling two.

Even if BN and PAS perceive tactical cooperation as electorally beneficial, extending such arrangements nationally would remain challenging due to differing state dynamics, leadership ambitions and grassroots considerations, he comments. “Johor could serve as an important testing ground, but it is not necessarily a template for GE16.”

Read also:
Johor polls may impact Anwar’s unity government
Snap polls a test of Bersama’s viability
Three factors that could decide the outcome
Chinese votes no longer a sure thing for DAP as frustration, fatigue simmer
Johor state seat composition over the years

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