This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 6, 2026 - July 12, 2026

IN Johor, what began as a state election for 56 seats is fast becoming a testing ground for new political strategies ahead of Malaysia’s 16th general election (GE16).

Who forms the next Johor government may come down to three variables: how turnout affects the race; whether Perikatan Nasional (PN) votes can be transferred to Barisan Nasional (BN); and whether Bersama can convert online hype into actual votes — and whose support it will split.

The Edge examines historical state election data to assess how these key drivers could shape the results of the state polls this Saturday (July 11).

Both BN and PH are contesting in 56 seats whereas PN components — Bersatu, PAS, MIPP and Pejuang — are contesting in 33.

BN’s 2022 landslide of 40 seats came on the back of a low turnout of 54.9%, almost 30 percentage points lower than in 2018.

One view is that local voters who turned out were largely BN’s hardcore supporters, and those who did not return from other states to vote were fence-sitters more inclined towards Pakatan Harapan (PH).

PKR member of parliament for Pasir Gudang, Hassan Abdul Karim, has suggested that PH could form the Johor government if turnout crosses 70%. That would require PH to retain its existing 12 seats and win an additional 17 to obtain the 29-seat majority needed to form the state government.

The expectation that a higher turnout favours PH stems from its strong showing in 2018, when turnout reached 84.5%. Some may argue, however, that 2018 was a watershed in the country’s history.

From 14 seats in 2013, PH parties — PKR, DAP and Amanah — captured another 14 seats in the 2018 election, winning 28 seats (excluding Bersatu’s eight seats).

Even so, a higher turnout does not guarantee an easy path for PH.

PH won 10 seats by margins below 15% in 2018, when turnout was 29.6 percentage points higher than in 2022. And when turnout fell to 54.9% in 2022, PH lost 15 seats to BN and one to PAS.

Amanah suffered the biggest loss — ceding seven seats to BN plus one seat to PAS — followed by PKR (four) and DAP (four).

Notably, PH lost 10 of those seats in 2022 by margins below 15%. The prevailing view is that many PH-leaning voters did not return home to vote and the results could have been different if they had. Does PH stand a better chance of recapturing the 10 seats this time?

On the other hand, PH might be in danger of losing six seats — Jementah (N02), Tangkak (N10), Bukit Batu (N51), Johor Jaya (N42), Perling (N46) and Stulang (N45) — which were won by margins of up to 10%. The margin at Bukit Batu was a razor-thin 0.6%, or 137 votes.  All six seats have been held by PH for the past 15 years.

Adding to PH’s challenge, PN is not contesting in four of those marginal seats and could see its vote transfer to BN in action: DAP’s Tangkak, Johor Jaya and Perling; and PKR’s Bukit Batu. PN secured between 16% and 21% of the vote in these four seats in 2022.

Several PAS leaders have urged their supporters to vote for BN in the 23 seats where Perikatan Nasional (PN) is not contesting.

At the very least, the votes from PAS supporters would help BN defend 14 incumbent seats held by Umno (10) and MCA (four).

Senai (N52) could be a tough fight for incumbent DAP, which won by an 18.5% margin but with 52% vote share. It is still a three-cornered fight in the southern Johor constituency as in the previous poll between PH, BN and Parti Bersama Malaysia, as PN does not field candidates there.

Bersama might draw votes from PH, and BN’s support might be strengthened by PAS supporters.

Having said that, the scale of any transfer remains uncertain, especially after some Bersatu leaders rejected the idea of voting for other parties.

BN, PH and PN will face three-cornered fights in 22 seats, including six marginal ones that incumbents won by margins below 10%: Umno’s Bukit Pasir (N08) and Serom (N11); MIC’s Tenggaroh (N33) and Kemelah (N04); Bersatu’s Bukit Kepong (N07); and DAP’s Jementah (N02).

Bukit Pasir had the second slimmest margin of just 1.1% in the 2022 state poll, after Bukit Batu. Umno recaptured the seat from PAS in a six-cornered fight. Umno garnered 6,048 votes, PAS 5,850 and Amanah 4,676.

Serom is another marginal seat. Umno recaptured the seat from Amanah in 2022 with a margin of barely 3.2%, after it lost it to Amanah in 2018. Umno had 8,507 votes (38%), PAS 7,808 (35%) and Amanah 5,509 (25%) in a four-cornered fight then.

PAS had won only one seat — Maharani (N15) in the northeast of Johor — with a margin of 4.9% in a six-cornered fight.

Aside from PAS, PKR and Amanah also each have only one seat from 2022, reflecting how challenging it is to make inroads and maintain momentum in the state, the birth place of Umno. Against this backdrop, will new entrant Bersama be able to also garner at least one seat?

Bersama is fielding candidates in 15 seats. Its co-leader Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli says the party’s goal is for its candidates not to lose their deposits. To do so, candidates must secure at least 12.5% of valid votes.

For instance, Bersama’s Bukit Naning (N14) candidate Iskankar Md Alias needs aroound 1,700 votes to retain the RM8,000 deposit, and Sahrudin Omar in Kota Iskandar (N49) needs nearly 10,000 votes, assuming a 60% turnout.

Analysts expect the two-month-old party to draw mainly from Rafizi’s former camp in PH.  Bersama’s campaign is also targeting conservative BN and PN voters, with Rafizi declaring that the party will not form an alliance with any bloc.

That puts four BN-held marginal seats in the spotlight: Kota Iskandar (N49), Tiram (N40), Bukit Naning (N14) and Kempas (N47), all of which Bersama is contesting.

One thing stands out in Bersama’s strategy: six of the seats it is contesting have voters aged 18 to 29 comprising more than 30% of the electorate, a group seen as fence-sitters and less loyal to traditional parties.

Bersama has also placed its candidates nearly equally between Malay majority seats (seven) and mixed seats (eight).

Still, winning a seat will be difficult. Of the 15 seats Bersama is contesting, 14 were won with vote shares above 40% in 2022, when turnout ranged from 43.3% to 64.4%.

One seat that Bersama might have a better chance of winning is Puteri Wangsa (N41), which Muda won by a 13.4% margin and where a five-cornered fight is expected.

Johor also has a strong element of political continuity. In total, 30 of its 56 seats have remained in the same hands since 2013, led by BN with 19 seats and PH with 11.

As the incumbents seek to strengthen their foothold, opposition parties PN and Bersama aim to make inroads in the southern state. The outcome would determine the forms of partnership going into the Negeri Sembilan election on Aug 1, perhaps followed by Melaka and Sarawak, ahead of the big test in GE16. 

Read also:
Johor polls may impact Anwar’s unity government
Snap polls a test of Bersama’s viability
BN-PAS non-formal alliance adds a new twist
Chinese votes no longer a sure thing for DAP as frustration, fatigue simmer
Johor state seat composition over the years