(March 26): The heads of some of the world’s top energy traders said they would be open to returning to Russia for business if sanctions were fully lifted, although some expressed caution about the prospect happening any time soon.

“If sanctions are eased in a way that we can go back in, why wouldn’t we? It’s our job.” Gunvor Group chief executive officer Torbjörn Törnqvist said in an interview. “We don’t do anything today, because we think even though there are some grey zones, we just don’t do it. But if these are removed, why wouldn’t we?”

Big western commodity traders had significant businesses in Russia before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, through long-term deals with domestic producers and investments in key projects. The companies have spent the past three years pulling back from many of those contracts and partnerships, and largely stepped back from trading Russian oil and metals, as the US, Europe and UK targeted Russian exports, producers, traders, and banks with a growing web of sanctions. 

The comments at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland show how the industry is thinking about the implications of Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war. On Tuesday, the US said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, even as the Kremlin said its involvement would depend on a series of preconditions, including sanctions relief.

“I think if the sanctions are lifted, we would go back to Russia, and see if we have a role to play in the commodities sector,” Mercuria Energy Group Ltd CEO Marco Dunand said. “As a company, we are bit more shy when it comes to sanctions, but if sanctions were lifted, we would absolutely consider if we could bring value and go back.”

In markets from gas to aluminium, investors have been gaming out the possibility of a ramp-up of Russian flows to Europe that could cause prices to drop sharply. But the trading house executives warned that both the process of reaching a peace deal, and the return of Russian commodities after that, could take longer than markets are anticipating.

Trafigura Group CEO Richard Holtum said his company’s large cohort of British employees would complicate a return if US sanctions were lifted while other restrictions remained. 

“You would need to see a wholesale winding back of all the sanctions before it’s something that could even be considered,” he said.

Russell Hardy of Vitol Group said his firm’s activity is “obviously going to depend on the rules and regulations at the time”, but cautioned that the process of negotiating a ceasefire is “incredibly complex”.

“In reality, we do think it’s going to be a year or two, so there isn’t any anxiousness inside of the organisation about being ready or preparing for it,” he said. “But clearly I could be wrong, and it could be quicker than anticipated.”

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