(March 24): When Türkiye jailed Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s biggest rival at the weekend, thousands of protesters took to the streets. Notably less vocal were the country’s Western allies.

The Turkish president and commander of Nato’s second-biggest army is banking on the world needing him more than it needs to join a fight over the country’s democracy. With the US and Europe preoccupied with security challenges, Erdogan has positioned himself as a key power broker from Ukraine to the conflict zones of the Middle East and Africa.

Barring a few objections from European capitals, the international outcry after a Turkish court on Sunday formally arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was conspicuous by its absence. Germany’s outgoing chancellor called his detention days earlier “depressing”.  US President Donald Trump’s State Department dismissed it as an internal matter.

Türkiye’s government says prosecutors don’t act under political pressure. Many critics, though, have found themselves behind bars after challenging Erdogan, most recently this year as part of a wave of arrests and investigations. But the imprisonment of a figure as high-profile as Imamoglu, widely seen as capable of defeating Erdogan in the next election, is unprecedented.

Erdogan has likely calculated that Türkiye’s rising strategic importance outweighs its democratic shortcomings. It’s a bet that has, so far, paid off politically — even as investors dump Turkish assets and risk undoing recent progress to bring foreign money back to the country.

The war in Ukraine has made Europe increasingly reliant on Türkiye, whose expanding military footprint and defence capabilities make it a valuable ally as Trump rethinks US security commitments in Europe.

“The global environment is permissive toward Erdogan, a keen reader of the zeitgeist,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I expect no meaningful pushback from Europe or the US.”

Imamoglu, a key leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, was first taken into custody last Wednesday. That was a day after authorities revoked his university diploma, a mandatory requirement to run for president. He was later charged with corruption and denies all allegations against him.

The 54-year-old mayor has been a major political force since 2019, when he defeated Erdogan’s handpicked candidate in local elections. He repeated that success against another Erdogan ally last year, helping the main opposition group inflict an unprecedented defeat on Erdogan’s AK Party.

Unlike leaders of pro-Kurdish or Turkish nationalist parties who were imprisoned before, Imamoglu’s meteoric rise and popularity make him the most formidable rival Erdogan has ever sidelined. “We’ll together remove this black stain put on our democracy,” Imamoglu said in a statement shortly after his arrest. “I stand tall; I will never bow.”

Türkiye’s next presidential election is due in 2028, though under the constitution, Erdogan, 71, is barred from running again. To change that, the AK Party and its allies need a parliamentary majority, and observers say that cracking down on opponents and recent overtures to make peace with Kurdish separatists are designed to increase support.

“What is becoming increasingly clear is Erdogan’s willingness to steer Türkiye toward full autocracy, moving away from the competitive authoritarian model that has characterised the country’s governance over the past decade,” said Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of consulting firm Teneo.

The political turmoil inside Türkiye, meanwhile, comes as the transatlantic defence establishment grapples with its own unprecedented challenges.

Trump is negotiating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, where Erdogan has offered to send a peacekeeping force. Türkiye is one of the few countries Russia has not opposed in such a role — though President Vladimir Putin has said he doesn’t want Nato troops in Ukraine.

Türkiye has put forth plans to US officials to take over the fight against Islamic State and provide stability in Syria, allowing Americans to focus their efforts on other national security priorities.

During a call with the US president on March 16, Erdogan also asked for a lifting of sanctions imposed on Türkiye’s defence companies during the first Trump presidency. In addition, Erdogan, who is seeking to meet Trump at the White House next month, requested Türkiye’s reinstatement in the F-35 project, a joint program to produce America’s most advanced fifth-generation fighter jets.

“I think the president had a great conversation with Erdogan a couple of days ago — really transformational,” Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Friday, dismissing concerns over protests sparked by Imamoglu’s detention. “There’s a lot of good, positive news coming out of Türkiye right now as a result of that conversation.”

At the moment, investors may be the only force providing a check on Erdogan’s aspirations.

Volatility in financial markets is jeopardising the economic gains since Erdogan won re-election in mid-2023 and promptly U-turned on his unorthodox policies, bringing back his former ally Mehmet Simsek as finance minister.

The central bank raised interest rates to 50% — the highest since Erdogan began ruling Türkiye in 2003 — and kept it there long enough for Türkiye to accumulate foreign reserves after years in the red.

Inflation, still hovering around 40%, was finally showing signs of abating after runaway price increases pushed many Turks into poverty and away from Erdogan’s ruling party.

Since Imamoglu’s detention last week, Türkiye’s borrowing costs surged, stocks slumped and the lira lost more than 3%. The central bank intervened, with commercial lenders selling as much as $9 billion on the first day of volatility to stem the lira’s decline and prevent it from stoking inflation.

“At this point, only massive peaceful protests and the markets — the one thing regarding Türkiye over which Erdogan has no control — can persuade Türkiye’s president to change course,” said Cagaptay, the political scientist.

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