(Jan 10): India’s government acknowledged it miscalculated import figures for precious metals for months, an error that pushed the trade deficit to a record in November and caused the rupee to plunge to an all-time low.

The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement on Thursday it revised import figures from April to November after discovering the discrepancy, which had resulted from migrating to a new data transmission system.

Preliminary estimates released earlier this week suggested gold imports for November stood at US$9.84 billion (RM44.26 billion) — about US$5 billion, or a third, lower than what was previously reported for the month. The ministry said on Thursday it’s still in the process of reconciling the data. 

The figures were scrutinised after an “unusual surge” in precious metal imports in November, the ministry said. After reconciling the numbers, it found the new data transmission system miscalculated the imports. Bloomberg had earlier reported the discrepancy.

The miscalculation led to a four-fold increase in gold imports to a record US$14.8 billion in November, causing the trade deficit to widen to US$37.8 billion. While gold imports have risen steadily since the government cut duties on the precious metal to 6% from 15% in the July budget, the sharp spike had stumped analysts and raised questions about the accuracy of the figures.

Based on Bloomberg calculation using the preliminary revisions available, India’s trade deficit for November was US$31.83 billion.

The ministry said on Thursday it makes revisions to its figures “from time to time”, based on “data that’s received late, amendments in the respective months and qualitative corrections wherever required”. 

Preliminary revisions show gold imports were US$37.39 billion in the April-November period, down US$11.7 billion from previously reported.

Economists said the revision will lead to a narrower current account deficit, but it won’t have much of an impact on the local currency. While the Indian rupee could see further weakness, as a result of a stronger US dollar, it is still expected to “outperform” other currencies in Asia’s emerging markets in 2025, said Aastha Gudwani, the Indian chief economist of Barclays Bank plc.

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