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KUALA LUMPUR (July 10): While the defeat of Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the recent Sungai Bakap by-election was expected, political analysts say the lower turnout among PH’s traditional voters showed that they were sending a message to the unity government, both at the federal and Penang state levels, that the ruling coalition should not be complacent.
Analysts estimated a drop in turnout of between 20% and 43% among Chinese voters, and between 31% and 52% among Indian voters, signalling the disengagement of PH’s political base.
“We also see significant lower turnout among younger voters, especially Undi18 (youth movement) and middle class voters. This should be the most serious worry for PH-PKR; its traditional voters did not come out to support them,” political analyst Prof Dr Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Malaysia, told The Edge.
PH had fielded Dr Joohari Ariffin of PKR in the by-election against Abidin Ismail of PAS by Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, professor in political sociology at the School of Social Sciences in Universiti Sains Malaysia, concurred, saying that Chinese voters, especially in Penang, are "very strategic" during by-elections, as they know that the outcome of this contest would not affect the two-thirds majority that PH commands in the state assembly.
"I think they would like to send a message to the ruling government to buck up. It's a wake-up call, I would say, for both the state and federal governments that they shouldn't be so complacent with the non-Malay voters, thinking that somehow they will continue to be loyal," he told The Edge.
However, Sivamurugan is of the view that this voting pattern may change in the next general or state election as there would be a lot more at stake. "It could be a protest vote so that the state and federal governments will relook into several issues. But I don't think this is reflective of the overall general sentiment," he said.
Meanwhile, Prof Dr Ong Kian Ming, the DAP Selangor state treasurer and a former federal lawmaker, observed that the drop in turnout among Chinese and Indian voters was larger than among Malay voters.
"This is the protest vote cast against the unity government by these two groups of voters and definitely contributed to the larger majority won by PN," he told The Edge.
"The danger for PH is that the unhappiness against the unity government will continue to build until GE16 (16th general election) causing a similar fall in turnout."
The Sungai Bakap by-election last Saturday saw PN's Abidin Ismail emerging victorious with a 4,267-vote margin over PH's Joohari. This was a significantly larger margin, compared with the 1,563-vote majority when PN won the seat in the Penang state election in August last year.
Only 63.5% of the constituency’s 39,279 registered voters came out to cast their ballots in the by-election, according to Election Commission data.
The seat fell vacant following the passing of PN's Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24 due to stomach inflammation. With PN’s triumph in the by-election, the coalition retained its 11-seat count in the Penang state assembly.
The unity government, meanwhile, maintains its two-thirds majority in the 40-seat assembly, with PH's 27 seats and Barisan Nasional's (BN) two seats.
PH failed to win over Umno voters
Although the machinery of BN lynchpin Umno came out in droves to persuade its 5,105 members in Sungai Bakap to help the unity government create an upset against PN-PAS, the analysts noted that PH had failed to win over Umno voters in this by-election. Umno voters had either opted to vote for PN, or not come out to vote altogether, the analysts say.
"Maybe Umno supporters [were unhappy that their candidate] was not fielded there; [both] in the last state election and in this by-election. Maybe they felt like 'why should we come out and support a coalition that we don't recognise?" said Sivamurugan.
"I think that is the dilemma that PH is having now. They can't just focus on the non-Malay support. Now, the non-Malays didn't come out to vote, while the Malays who came out supported PN. So they are losing both support," he added.
Following the PN win on Saturday, PAS vice-president Datuk Idris Ahmad had thanked Umno grassroots for voting for the PN candidate, saying it was a clear signal that they could not accept Umno's cooperation with DAP both at the federal and state levels.
"We see that [Umno grassroots not accepting cooperation with DAP] is very clear. When we met them face-to-face to talk to them, they said they really can't accept that," he said on Saturday.
DAP's Ong noted that it was not only the Umno grassroots that did not support PH and the unity government, but the larger Malay electorate have switched their support from BN-Umno to PN since the formation of the unity government in 2022.
Welsh concurred, contending that Malay support for the unity government has largely remained the same since the state election in 2023. "Many Umno grassroots moved to PAS or protested in 2023. This pattern largely remains. Traditional Umno support did not come back to the unity government," she said.
Will Umno rethink its cooperation with DAP?
The declining Malay support has placed Umno in a difficult position right now, Ong observed. On the one hand, Umno has to remain in the unity government until the next general election if it intends to have access to government resources. "But by doing so, it will suffer the anger of the Malay voters over various unpopular government policies such as the withdrawal of blanket diesel, and later petrol, subsidies," he said.
On the other hand, by staying in the unity government, Umno is opening itself up to being attacked by PN for cooperating with DAP.
"Umno-DAP [cooperation] is increasingly being used as a way to attack Umno by instigating the fears of the Malays towards DAP. But if BN-Umno goes alone in GE16, there is no guarantee that it can win back the Malay vote," Ong said.
"It will definitely not be able to win any Chinese or Indian votes because of the weakness and unpopularity of [BN component parties] MCA and MIC. Hence, it is caught between a rock and a hard place," he added.
However, Welsh argued that Umno's problems do not lie with its allies, but instead in the lack of support for its current leadership
"Umno has little choice in allies if it is to remain in government. PAS is stronger now so any alliance with them will mean a more subordinate position. Their solutions lie with strengthening the party internally first," she said.