NIBONG TEBAL (July 6): Perikatan Nasional (PN) has managed to retain the Sungai Bakap state seat in Penang as its candidate Abidin Ismail emerged victorious in the by-election with a 4,267-vote margin over Pakatan Harapan candidate Dr Joohari Ariffin.
This is a significantly larger margin, compared with the 1,563-vote majority when PN won the seat in the Penang state election in August last year.
In that bout, PN’s Nor Zamri Latiff, whose passing triggered this by-election, secured victory against PH candidate Nurhidayah Che Rose, gaining the seat from PH, which had held the seat for three consecutive terms since 2008.
The Election Commission (EC) announced on Saturday night that Abidin had secured 14,489 votes from the state seat’s Malay-majority electorate, while Joohari garnered 10,222 votes.
Overall, only 63.5% of Sungai Bakap’s 39,279 registered voters came out to cast their ballots in this by-election.
This is even lower than the 76.9% turnout seen in the last Penang state election, which already fell short of the 87.1% in 2018, and 89.1% in 2013. Sungai Bakap’s voter base comprises 59.3% Malay, followed by 22.7% Chinese, and 17.4% Indian.
Accepting his win, Abidin thanked the Sungai Bakap voters for entrusting him with the responsibility to bring matters of local issues to the state assembly. "My priority [as the new state assemblyman] will be to handle the water crisis in Mukim 5," he told reporters after the results announcement.
Notably, Joohari was not present at the counting centre when the EC announced the results.
PAS vice-president Datuk Idris Ahmad said PN's win in this by-election serves as a "clear slap" to the leadership of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in the federal government, as well as against the DAP leadership in the Penang state government.
Besides that, Idris said that the win is also a clear signal by Umno grassroots that they could not accept cooperation with DAP as the unity government both at the federal and state levels.
"We see that (Umno grassroots not accepting cooperation with DAP) is very clear. When we met them face-to-face to talk to them, they said they really can't accept that (cooperation with DAP)," he said.
"So the DAP leadership in the state government must remember — you talk about integrity, you talk about your capabilities, but you failed to manage small local issues, like the water crisis in this Sungai Bakap constituency," Idris added.
Local issues remain critical
Meanwhile, Merdeka Center for Opinion Research co-founder and programmes director Ibrahim Suffian said that local and national level issues remain critical in convincing voters to send a strong signal to the government.
"Local issues such as water supply difficulties, the diesel subsidy cut and its ensuing impact on cost of living, and continuing worries about prospects of the economy and jobs were not adequately addressed or convincing enough for them to shift," he told The Edge following the results.
On top of that, Ibrahim said the results show that the polarisation along ethnic and generational lines had remained unchanged since the last general election and state election. "It also means contesting parties need to try out novel moves and strategies if they are to achieve a different outcome," he added.
Further, Professor Dr Bridget Welsh, a honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Malaysia, opined that the increased majority on lower turnout for PAS reinforces the trend of low support for the federal government, especially among Malays and increasingly among Chinese voters, who she said "increasingly stayed home".
"His party (Anwar's PKR) was not able to win in his home state as the prime minister in government and with PH leading the state. It points to persistent electoral weakness. This was an election PKR hoped to win, but its campaign and governance had yet to pull new political support," she told The Edge.
The Sungai Bakap seat fell vacant following Nor Zamri’s passing on May 24 due to stomach inflammation. With PN’s triumph in the by-election, the coalition retained its 11-seat count in the Penang state assembly.
PH, meanwhile, maintains its two-thirds majority in the 40-seat state assembly, with 27 seats of its own, plus two Barisan Nasional seats.