HULU SELANGOR (May 11): Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) victory in the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) state by-election was widely expected by political analysts.
Even so, they had expected it to be closer fought.
PH-DAP’s Pang Sock Tao secured 14,000 votes, a 3,869-vote majority over Perikatan Nasional-Bersatu (PN-Bersatu) candidate Khairul Azhari Saut’s 10,131 votes in the by-election that came to a close on Saturday night.
This was slightly smaller versus the 4,119-vote majority DAP secured with the late incumbent Lee Kee Hiong in the state polls last year.
Merdeka Center for Opinion Research co-founder and programmes director Ibrahim Suffian said that while the research firm had expected PH-DAP to win in the KKB by-election, the 3,869-vote margin was stronger than its earlier estimate.
“What was not known at the time [our private surveys were conducted] was how public-sector voters (such as civil servants and police personnel) would vote. With the clear outcome in favour of PH among them in this election, the results were better than our earlier estimate,” Ibrahim told The Edge.
Meanwhile, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political science professor Dr Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid held expectations for PN to put on a stronger fight, but noted that the coalition failed to muster sufficient support.
“There are reasons to explain why some Malay voters refused to cast their ballots. Firstly, discord within the PN camp, which must be disappointing for PN-supporting Malays who are dead set against supporting PH either,” The Edge was told by Ahmad Fauzi, whose wife hails from Hulu Selangor.
“Secondly, unconvincing answers given by the PN candidate concerning dodgy details of his academic qualifications raised issues of integrity.
“Finally, [PAS secretary general] Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan’s last-minute outburst against [Prime Minister] Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as a sodomist did not go down well with some Malays, as this bordered upon qazf or false accusations of sexual deviancy,” the analyst added.
'A battleground that was never in PN’s favour'
Merdeka Center’s Ibrahim said the demographics of KKB were never in PN’s favour, and the results showed that the Malay-dominant coalition failed to make any gains among non-Malays.
“At the same time, PN has also not been able to inspire younger Malay voters to show up in enough numbers to cause an upset. By some calculations, PN would have needed in excess of 80% of Malay support and some from non-Malays if it were to have a chance,” Ibrahim said.
“The demographics of KKB don’t favour PN,” he added. The multi-ethnic state seat’s electorate comprises 46.9% Malay, followed by 30.3% Chinese, and 17.8% Indian.
Adding to this, University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia's Dr Bridget Welsh noted that PH’s incumbency advantage, coupled with PN’s lacklustre campaign and machinery, played to PH’s favour in the by-election outcome.
That said, PH-DAP’s lower majority of 3,869 votes in this by-election compared to last year serves as a warning sign, according to Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“The seat was DAP’s to lose anyway, so they just lived out the prediction of them winning,” Oh told The Edge.
The KKB by-election’s voter turnout was low at 60.8%. This was even lower than the 68.3% turnout seen in the state polls in August last year, which already fell short of the 83.7% in 2018 and 83.6% in 2013.
'Low turnout, a stage for core supporters'
Merdeka Center’s Ibrahim noted that low voter turnouts are common in by-elections. Most swing voters may think they have minimal impact on the nation’s political landscape, he said.
That said, Ibrahim noted that by-elections, like the one that just concluded in KKB, serve as indicators of competing parties’ bases of core supporters, and their level of commitment to their party and candidate.
“In this case, it’s quite clear that PH supporters in the area came out strongly for Pang,” he said, adding that turnout was also low due to a large number of working-age voters being non-residents and did not vote.
That said, Bersatu deputy president Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu claimed that for those who did, they voted for the PN coalition. There was also an increase in youth votes according to Bersatu's tally, Ahmad Faizal told reporters at a press conference after the results.
USM’s Ahmad Fauzi suggested that the low voter turnout in the KKB by-election could be attributed to election fatigue and disillusionment, while University of Nottingham’s Welsh noted it could be due to a lack of enthusiasm from all sides.
As for data on which specific ethnic communities were key behind PH’s victory, and on the other side PN’s loss, Welsh said it is too early to tell which groups showed up to cast their ballots.
“I will be looking at the specific results carefully in terms of communities, so it is too early to say which communities did or did not come out to vote,” she said.