This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on August 21, 2023 - August 27, 2023

On Aug 12, the six state elections (Pilihanraya Negeri ke-15 or PRN15) ended with what appears to be the same scenario as before the polls, with Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan under the control of the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) alliance and Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu still in the hands of Perikatan Nasional (PN).

A closer look at the results, however, reveals that PN is a rising force. The coalition strengthened its grip on Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu with super majorities in all three states. It also made significant inroads into the PH-BN strongholds of Selangor and Penang, as well as noticeable gains in Negeri Sembilan.

PAS did most of the heavy lifting for PN, securing 105 of the 146 state seats that the coalition won. The Islamist party boasted an 82.7% success rate in the state elections, which is all the more remarkable because it fielded the highest number of candidates of all the parties — in 127 seats.

As for the PH-BN alliance, the fortunes of Umno, the linchpin in the BN coalition, continued to decline, having secured only 19 of the 108 seats it contested in the six state polls. The latest election season confirms that the support of the Malay electorate is waning for Malaysia’s former political hegemon.

While BN is said to have the strongest electoral machinery in the country, PAS has clearly illustrated that its grassroots support is now the most effective. Together with its coalition partner Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), they are now in the position that Umno used to occupy in the Malay heartland.

As for PH, DAP is a major component party for the coalition, having won 46 of the 80 state seats that the coalition secured. The party clinched all the seats it stood for except one.

PH component parties Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) were less successful, winning 26 and eight seats respectively, giving them a win rate of 44.1% and 25.8% based on the 59 and 31 seats they contested.

In this eight-page special pullout, The Edge has compiled the state election results for 2013, 2018 and 2023. This is to illustrate the drastic change in sentiment that has occurred in the six states over the past three election cycles.

From the gains made by PN in the recent state polls, the green wave that was credited for the coalition’s strong showing in the 15th general election (GE15) in November last year, shows no signs of letting up. Bersatu and PAS are holding sway in the rural states of Perlis (in GE15), Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, creating a political divide in Peninsular Malaysia.

The results of the recent state polls suggest that voter sentiment in general has leaned towards PN’s identity narrative, while the development narrative employed by PH-BN, which are part of the unity government at the federal level, failed to win over the hearts and minds of rural Malay voters or mitigate the electorate’s dissatisfaction with BN.

Looking ahead, the pressure is firmly on PH-BN to formulate an effective strategy to check PN’s momentum in the four years leading up to GE16, which is expected to be held in 2027.

The six state election results complicate the efforts to govern the country through the unity government that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim cobbled together after GE15 ended with a hung parliament.

The strengthening PN may put pressure on Anwar and the unity government’s attempt at fiscal consolidation. Further, BN’s losses will weigh on its chairman and Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s leadership, in addition to the graft charges he faces.

Questions also arise as to how Anwar’s allies in Sabah and Sarawak will respond to the recent state election results with PH-BN losing ground in all six states.

By Izzul Ikram

Nine months ago, PAS blindsided everyone and won the highest number of parliamentary seats in the 15th general election (GE15). The 49 seats that the Islamist party secured were nearly double the 25 seats its fellow Perikatan Nasional (PN) component party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) achieved.

PAS’ strong showing led to PN being the second-largest coalition in parliament, with 74 seats, behind Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) 81. This watershed moment, while not as historically significant as the one in 2018 when Barisan Nasional (BN) was voted out from power at the federal level for the first time since Malaysia’s independence, clearly set the stage for the six state elections that just came to pass.

In GE15, BN not only failed to recapture any seats it previously held but lost even more ground to its opponents, PH and PN. Its presence in parliament shrank further to 30 seats — not even 15% of the 222 parliamentary seats. The Umno-led coalition had a simple majority with 133 seats in 2013 and, prior to that, it held a two-thirds majority in 2008.

In the years since PH swept into power in 2018, Umno leaders, such as its former president Datuk Seri Najib Razak and current president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, have faced graft charges. In the light of this, its political opponents have gained grassroots support.

PAS is clearly the biggest winner, from the 21 seats it had after GE13 to the 49 seats it holds today, making it the most successful political party in the country, one that has triggered the so-called green wave that is sweeping across the peninsula. 

This was the true battleground in PRN15. It was a tough fight for Pakatan Harapan (PH), which was denied a two-thirds majority in the 

state legislative assembly. The Malay votes in the outskirts of Selangor swung away from PH, which had formed an alliance with Umno in the state polls. Nevertheless, PH managed to secure a simple majority with 32 seats to form the state government, which was quite a drop from the 45 seats (excluding Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, which won six seats) won by the coalition in PRN 14.

Perikatan Nasional (PN) secured 22 seats, 10 of which were won by PAS candidates. Half of the seats won by PN, however, were with razor thin margins of less than 5%. Umno continued to lose in Selangor, taking only two seats this time around, and one of which was Dusun Tua — a PH safe seat.
 

Negeri Sembilan is the one and only state where grassroots support for Umno is relatively intact, judging by the fact that the party won 14 of the 17 seats it contested. It won fewer than three seats in each of the five other state elections during PRN15. However, eight seats were won by a thin margin of less than 10%, indicating that the Malay votes had swung to Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Pakatan Harapan (PH) was the biggest winner here, with the coalition winning 17 out of the 19 seats it stood for. Hence, the incumbent Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun remains the state’s menteri besar. The green wave does not seem to have gained traction in the state, with PN securing only five of the 36 seats in the state legislative assembly, three of which went to PAS candidates

Penang remains a stronghold for Pakatan Harapan (PH), with the coalition winning 27 of the 34 seats contested in the state polls. It was a near clean sweep for PH on Penang island. However, the overall results are a signal that it  cannot afford to let its guard down as it won fewer seats in PRN15 than in the previous two state elections. In PRN14, the coalition won 37 of the 39 seats it stood for, including two by Bersatu candidates, while it secured 30 of the 41 seats it contested in PRN13.

The Malay votes seem to have swung to the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) in PRN15, rather than to PH component party Parti Keadilan Rakyat. PN wrested 11 seats in Malay-majority constituencies, most of which are north of Butterworth, bordering Kedah. Umno, which won 10 seats a decade ago in PRN13, managed to secure only two seats this time around.

It was certainly a landslide victory for Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Kedah, having won 33 of the 36 state seats, particularly for PAS. The Islamist party alone won a simple majority in the state legislative assembly, securing 21 seats in PRN15, more than it did in the two previous state polls — 15 in PRN14 and nine in PRN13.

More than half of the seats it won were with a wide margin of more than 40%, evidence of the strong green wave sweeping across Kedah, which was once a stronghold of Barisan Nasional. Umno had 19 seats in PRN13, but none a decade later in PRN15.

Talk about a clean sweep. Perikatan Nasional (PN) won all 32 seats in Terengganu’s state legislative assembly. PAS won 27 seats — more than a two-thirds majority — while Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia secured five. Terengganu’s 74.79% voter turnout was the highest of the six states and nearly 97% of the electorate are Malay. This is the state where PAS leader Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang was born.

Some quarters see the results as a reaffirmation of the groundswell against Umno, which did not win any of the 27 seats it contested, including the 10 in which it was the incumbent. Others view this as solid support for PAS’ ideology on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Barisan Nasional formed the state government 10 years ago after capturing a simple majority of 17 seats in PRN13.

Perikatan Nasional (PN) was just two seats shy of having a clean sweep here, as it did in Terengganu. PAS won 37 of the 39 seats it contested, while Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) clinched all six seats it stood for. The two seats that eluded the coalition’s grasp — Kota Lama and Galas — were lost by margin of 1.04% and 6.63% respectively.

Barisan Nasional’s Umno managed to hold on to only one of the eight state seats it previously won. The Galas state seat Umno managed to retain is situated in the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency that was previously a party stronghold held by Tan Sri Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (popularly known as Ku Li) for 12 terms. Umno lost the other two state seats in Gua Musang - Nenggiri and Paloh — to Bersatu.

Kelantan is the state with the lowest voter turnout at 60.96%. The state is deemed a long-term PAS stronghold considering that the party has ruled it for more than 30 years.

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