KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 4): 2022 is known as the year of the Water Tiger in the Chinese Lunar calendar, which actually starts officially on Thursday (Feb 4) with the marking of lap chun (beginning of spring).

The Water element comes from the heavenly stem of the Chinese astrology chart for the year, which accompanies the Tiger zodiac.

So, does that mean the year is going to be characteristic of a big, possibly brooding, wet kitty?

The short answer is no.

As for the long answer… perhaps a look at past Tiger years will give a hint of what's in store for us.

Based on the 12-year zodiac cycle, the last four times the Tiger came around were in 2010, 1998, 1986 and 1974.

• 2010: A strong recovery

Living up to the Metal Tiger ambitions, recovery from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis continued for the KLCI and Wall Street — the latter extended its rally through the 12-year cycle up until today. Commodities prices rose, with Brent crude oil setting the stage for the US$100/bbl prices for the next three years. At home, the ringgit rose to its strongest in 13 years. In 1Q of 2010, Malaysia booked GDP growth of 10.1%, the highest since 2000. But if 2010 was great, the previous Tiger years saw everyone trying to claw their way out of steep economic downturns to survive.

• 1998: Heated and uprooted

The Asian Financial Crisis peaked in this Earth Tiger year, with Malaysia posting its worst GDP contraction. The KLCI bottomed at a nine-year low, while the ringgit was pegged to the US dollar after weakening by 67% from 2.50 in 1997 to over 4.18 in Jan 1998.

It was demand in the West that allowed emerging Asia to ride on an export-driven recovery in the following years.

In Malaysian politics, a rift exploded between Datuk Seri Mahathir Mohamad and his number two, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, which eventually lasted nearly three decades. The country also dealt with the 1997-1998 El Nino weather event, with temperature touching a high of 40.1°C. Severe drought lifted crude palm oil prices — despite the commodity downturn — as production took a bashing.

• 1986: Nothing short of eventful

The Fire Tiger was one embroiled in conflicts. Oil prices dived below US$20 and stayed down for over a decade, as Saudi Arabia kept its taps fully open to punish competitors who declined to cooperate to stabilise prices and took advantage of its supply cut.

Oil-producing Malaysia, which was hit by recession since 1985, continued to struggle in the downturn which nearly halted its costly heavy-industry push.

It was also eventful politics-wise, marked by bomb blasts and rioting in Sabah, and the resignation of deputy prime minister Tun Musa Hitam. But the incumbent federal coalition remained strong, as the 7th general election was won by a landslide by the Dr Mahathir-led Barisan Nasional coalition, with 148 seats secured against 24 by DAP and 1 by PAS.

• 1974: A crude, decisive year

Inflation surged in this Wood Tiger year amid the continued global recession that started in 1973 following OPEC's embargo that was put in place in retaliation to the US backing of Israeli military, which triggered the world's first oil shock. Brent crude prices rose nearly 300% from below US$4 in 1973 to over US$15/bbl.

This compounded the Bretton Woods monetary system collapse a couple of years prior. In 1973-1974, the US Dow Jones lost 45% in value, while the London Stock Exchange benchmark index recorded a 78% drop.

In Malaysia, the newly formed BN coalition sailed to an easy win during the 4th general election. It was also the year Petronas was formed, effectively taking back control of Malaysian oil resources from foreign oil majors.

According to Geomancy Consultant's feng shui master Jane Hor, the favourable elements of the year are Water and Wood, which represent the spring.

"The performance in the spring period (first quarter) seems promising, though it is but a sparkle. In the summer period, Fire will be prominent, thus the market is expected to be weak.

"The Malaysian economy and KLCI will improve after the third quarter, when Water becomes more prominent. Investors should be conservative in the first two quarters," she said.

Wood industries such as plantation, pharmaceutical, furniture and Water industries such as tourism, transportation, logistics, and cargo will outperform after 3Q, according to Hor. This is because in the year's bazi (astrology chart), Wood and Water are the main elements.

"Meanwhile, there are three Tigers in this year's bazi. This symbolises 'movements', so those involved in the import and export market will do well," said Hor.