This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on June 28, 2021 - July 4, 2021
AS a follow-up to our main story, the table demonstrates why the number of deaths is a more reliable indicator than confirmed positive cases when it comes to determining a country’s management, and severity, of the Covid-19 outbreak, and therefore, its consequences on the people.
The table ranks 183 countries in the world by number of deaths per million population as well as number of confirmed positive cases per million population. (The lower the ranking, the greater the relative severity of deaths/confirmed positive cases) Most countries rank differently on the two counts — underscoring the fact that just looking at confirmed positive cases does not tell the complete story. In the same way, the test positivity rate does not tell whether sufficient tests are being done, as the result is biased depending on the quality of the testing sample.
Take, for example, Peru, Italy, the UK and Mexico. These countries rank lowly in terms of relative death toll — and therefore, the severity of the outbreak — than that implied by their ranking by relative number of confirmed positive cases. It tells of the country’s handling of the outbreak, sufficiency of testing and reporting, and, to a certain extent, the quality of healthcare facilities.
At the other end of the spectrum, countries such as Singapore and Thailand rank among the best in terms of relative severity of deaths as compared with relative severity of confirmed positive cases. This strongly suggests a better handling of the crisis situation as well as relatively sufficient test and trace.
Relative rankings for the two most populous countries in the world, China and India, also tell a vastly diverging story of their respective government’s effectiveness in containing the outbreak crisis.
Malaysia ranks lower in terms of relative severity of confirmed positive cases (95 of 183) compared with relative severity of deaths (75 of 183). Whilst it is nothing to be proud of, the data suggests that we are faring comparatively well in terms of taking care of the ill.
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