This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on October 31, 2022 - November 6, 2022

IN the run-up to the 14th general election (GE14), The Edge wrote that in order for the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition to win the election, it would need to defeat Umno in most of the 106 seats that the anchor party of Barisan Nasional (BN) was contesting in the peninsula.

And, indeed, Umno’s parliamentary seats in the peninsula fell from 73 to 47, a decline of 26 seats, many of which went to PH. As a result, with the support of Parti Warisan Sabah, PH formed the federal government in May 2018, creating history.

This time around, however, it would be the aim of Umno and BN to wrest back those seats from PH and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, as well as to make gains against Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), Parti Pejuang Tanah Air and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda).

Looking at the seats won by all parties in GE14, 69 can be considered super marginal seats — as they were won by a margin of less than 10%. These seats were in diverse locations, from Tasek Gelugor in Penang to Kalabakan in Sabah.

Of the 69 seats, 22 were held by BN and its splinter coalition Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), and the rest were held by either PH, Perikatan Nasional (PN), Gabungan Tanah Air (GTA) or standalone parties.

Therefore, Umno and BN must win 47 seats that they did not hold prior to the dissolution of parliament, and maintain the 22 marginal seats that they held, for the coalition to return to power on Nov 19.

This time, though, it will not be “simple” three-cornered fights that many of these seats witnessed in GE14. That is because of the splits in the various coalitions and election partners over the last four years, with BN itself now constituting only the peninsula parties, with none of the Sarawak-based parties.

The Sheraton Move in February 2020 created a new coalition in PN, with Bersatu and PAS joining hands, and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia playing second fiddle. The move also gave birth to Muda and Pejuang — the former is currently in an electoral pact with PH, and the latter is part of the coalition called GTA.

All these developments make it hard to calculate whether BN will be able to wrestle back the lost marginal seats from the other blocs. Political observers believe, however, that the more likely outcome is that there will be more marginal seats in GE15.

Dr Wong Chin Huat, a political analyst and deputy head (strategy) at the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network’s Asia headquarters at Sunway University, says this election could result in more marginal seats than in GE14. That is because of the fragmented political scene, especially in the peninsula, as well as the substantial addition of new voters, which amounts to nearly seven million nationwide and constitutes a 40% increase in most constituencies, he tells The Edge.

“Of the new voters, only one out of every five is aged between 18 and 20, while the remaining are aged 21 and above, and enfranchised by automatic voter registration (AVR). Most of the AVR voters are apolitical as they didn’t register as voters but now find themselves on the electoral roll,” says Wong.

“Owing partly to AVR and Undi18, the abstaining voters (whom I call ‘Parti Aku Malas Undi’, or PAMU) surged to 45% in Johor. Of course, PAMU can also attract party supporters who voted previously but are now disillusioned. AVR is great in terms of expanding the size of PAMU, who will most likely remain uninterested in voting unless they are angered by developments.”

He adds that the bigger number of uninterested voters makes it an electoral minefield for parties and candidates as they may turn up at polling booths in droves just to vote out the candidates they reject.

For example, even without AVR, voting surged in 2008, after the Election Commission (EC) cancelled at the last minute the promised safeguard measure of indelible ink, and in 2018, when the EC picked a Wednesday for polling day, says Wong.

Looking at PH’s marginal seats as at October, the smallest margin was for the Lumut seat in Perak, won by Dr Hatta Ramli of Parti Amanah Negara. Dr Hatta won the seat with just a 400-vote majority, or a 0.75% margin.

He defeated former Perak menteri besar Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir of BN and Zamri Ibrahim of PAS. The total votes received by his opponents were 31,690, compared with the 21,955 he received to win the election.

This means the majority of the people in Lumut did not vote for Dr Hatta and Amanah in GE14. However, since Malaysia has a first-past-the-post electoral system, Dr Hatta and Amanah won the seat.

Nevertheless, Dr Hatta’s majority in Lumut is not the smallest among the marginal seats. That title goes to the Keningau seat in Sabah, where Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku president Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan won the seat with just a 45-vote majority, or a 0.11% margin, in a six-cornered fight.

In fact, the total votes received by his opponents — 26,863 — were far greater than Jeffrey’s 13,286. The second biggest number of votes was 13,241, won by Parti Warisan Sabah’s Jake Nointin.

While Keningau was an extreme case, 89 other parliamentary constituencies also saw winners with less than 50% of the votes, says Wong. This means the outcome could have been different if the supporters of the candidates who lost had concentrated on voting for the same person, he points out.

“The prevalence of minority winners happened most likely because voters cannot tell who the top two leading candidates are on whom to focus their votes. Some may also sincerely vote for a candidate who does not have a chance to win, either because they find the leading candidates are equally bad or they want to encourage a small party or an independent to continue. With more multi-corner fights and more contestants in GE15, these two factors are likely to produce more marginal constituencies,” says Wong.

On its part, BN too won a number of marginal seats. Prior to the dissolution of parliament in October, the coalition had 21 seats with a majority of less than 10%, with the thinnest majority being the Jasin seat in Melaka.

BN’s Datuk Seri Ahmad Hamzah won the seat with just a 219-vote majority, or a 0.35% margin, over his closest opponent, PH’s Khairuddin Abu Hassan. Hamzah received 26,560 votes while Khairuddin garnered 26,341 votes.

Even Sarawak, long seen as a bastion for BN, had a marginal seat. For the Baram seat, BN’s candidate Anyi Ngau of the Progressive Democratic Party had a majority of 1,990 votes, or a 8.9% margin, over Roland Engan of Parti Keadilan Rakyat. Roland is currently head of PKR Sarawak.

There were a number of seats won by big names in the political arena that were considered marginal seats.

Veteran politician Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah of BN retained the Gua Musang seat with a majority of 3,913 votes, or a 9.8% margin, against Ustaz Abdullah of PAS and Abe Nor of PH. Ku Li, as the Umno stalwart is popularly called, received 19,426 votes of the total 52,524 votes.

Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong was the biggest name with the smallest margin in GE14. Wee won the Ayer Hitam seat in central Johor by a majority of 303 votes, over Liew Chin Tong of the Democratic Action Party (DAP).

Even interim prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s Bera seat could be considered marginal as he won it with 2,311 votes, or a 4.89% margin. It was the smallest majority he had had for the seat, which he first contested in 2004.

The question that will be answered on polling day is: Will BN be able to wrest back the seats in the peninsula won by other blocs with a slim majority in GE14?

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