This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 7, 2018 - May 13, 2018

TO win GE14, Pakatan Harapan needs to defeat Umno in most of the 106 parliamentary seats that the anchor party of Barisan Nasional is contesting in the peninsula. In GE13, Umno won 73 and lost 33 of those seats, which are all Malay majority in various proportions.

These 73 seats make up more than half the total 133 parliamentary seats that BN won.

The reality is, despite having Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Datuk Seri Hadi Awang leading the charge, the opposition could only take 33 seats from Umno in 2013. Pakatan Harapan is now banking on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to take more seats off Umno. By our calculations, Pakatan must win at least 55 of the 106 seats that they are going head-to-head with Umno/BN in the peninsula.

Can Pakatan succeed?

Looking at the GE13 results, 61 of the 73 seats Umno won were on margins of less than 30%. Umno also won four seats by a margin of more than 50%. (see Table 1). There are only four such seats — three are in Johor and one is in Pahang. All four seats are Malay majority seats in non-urban areas.

Pekan is Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s constituency. He won by a margin of 53.2% after getting 76.6% of the total valid votes.

The other three seats, Pengerang, Kota Tinggi and Tenggara, are rural seats with strong local Umno warlords. Pengerang is Datuk Seri Azalina Othman’s seat and in 2013 was the first time there was a challenger for the seat (in the previous election in 2008, Azalina won uncontested).

Next, there are eight seats that Umno candidates won by a comfortable majority of between 30% and 50% (see Table 2).

The results for the Putrajaya seat are interesting. In 2008, Tengku Adnan Mansor won the seat with a comfortable 51.18% margin but in 2013, his margin fell to 38.63%. This was likely because PAS put up a strong candidate in Putrajaya, namely Husam Musa who has now joined Amanah.

The Masjid Tanah seat was won by the current Puteri Umno chief Datuk Wira Mas Ermieyati Samsudin who is deputy minister of Tourism. It is a safe seat for her.

The seats that will likely come into active play are those where Umno won on less than a 30% margin (see Table 3). There are 30 seats where Umno won by an 11% to 30% margin and 31 seats in which Umno won on a slim margin of about 10% (see Table 4).

There are a few seats on this list with strong Umno leaders who hold/held positions in government or in Umno. Tangga Batu is currently the seat of Datuk Wira Abu Bakar Mohamad Diah, the deputy minister of Science, Technology and Innovation. It was formerly the seat of Datuk Seri Utama Idris Haron, who did not recontest the seat to take the state leadership. Idris is currently Melaka menteri besar.

Other big names in this list include Kuala Pilah, Datuk Seri Hasan Malek (former deputy minister, Umno supreme council); Parit Sulong, Datuk Noraini Ahmad (former Puteri chief, current Matrade chairman); Tampin, Datuk Seri Shaziman Abu Mansor (former Minister of Works); Gua Musang, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (Umno veteran); Maran, Datuk Seri Ismail Muttalib (deputy minister of Human Resources); Pasir Salak, Datuk Seri Tajuddin Rahman (deputy minister of Agriculture and Umno warlord); Johor Baru, Tan Sri Shahrir Samad (Felda chairman) and so on. The list goes on.

Rembau is Khairy Jamaluddin’s seat. Although he did not win with a big majority, he is said to be quite popular with the grassroots.

The Tambun MP is the former Minister of Finance II Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah. Interestingly, he won by only a small margin of 12% despite standing against a newcomer fielded by PKR.

Again, some of these seats are in urban or semi-urban areas. Malays make up the largest electorate group in all the seats (more than 50% Malays in all but two seats with 47% Malays). But many of these seats also have a sizeable non-Malay component.

Pulai and Pasir Gudang have at least a 52.9% non-Malay electorate. At least seven seats have 40% or more non-Malays.

In the past general election, the challengers in these seats were PKR (16 seats) and PAS (15 seats).

Big names that hold seats in risky danger zones include: Padang Rengas, Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz (minister of Tourism); Titiwangsa, Datuk Seri Johari Ghani (minister of Finance II); Balik Pulau, Datuk Seri Hilmi Yahaya (deputy minister of Health); Pulai, Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed (deputy Home minister); Bera, and Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob (minister of Rural Development).

There are also seats where the opposition (PAS and PKR) defeated Umno candidates by a very narrow margin.

These are the 18 seats (of which PAS won 10 and PKR won 8) that the opposition won on less than 10% margin (see Table 5).

PKR’s eight seats are: Batu Pahat, Lembah Pantai, Gombak, Kuala Kedah, Bukit Katil, Kuala Langat, Wangsa Maju and Kuantan. Lembah Pantai was Nurul Izzah Anwar’s seat and it was widely speculated that she would change seats. Her aide, Fahmi Fadzil, is contesting in Lembah Pantai. PAS’ 10 seats are Bachok, Kuala Nerus, Sepang, Bukit Gantang, Temerloh, Pasir Puteh, Kuala Krai, Pokok Sena, Dungun, Marang. Marang is the seat of PAS President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

Here are the seats where Umno lost by a wider margin of over 10% (see Table 6). There are 15 seats. The challengers to Umno in these seats were PKR (5), DAP (1) and PAS (9).

The sole seat where DAP contested and won against Umno was in Gelang Patah, where Lim Kit Siang stood. That was an exception. DAP rarely stands against Umno but they did it in Gelang Patah (now renamed Iskandar Puteri) , which is an urban seat with over 52% Chinese voters.

As we said at the start, to win GE14, Pakatan must wrest more seats from Umno than what it did in 2013. The seats that Pakatan failed to win are the solid Umno seats populated by Malay voters who have always been loyal to Umno. These are the voters Mahathir must convince to shift their support to Pakatan. Can he do it?  

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