(Nov 12): Thailand’s tourism recovery is losing momentum, with foreign arrivals headed for their first back-to-back annual decline outside the pandemic since at least 1995.
Weaker arrivals from China and Malaysia, two of the country’s biggest sources of tourists, along with travel disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and growing competition from Vietnam, are contributing to the likely second straight decline this year.
Thailand welcomed 25.5 million foreign visitors from January through October, down 4.6% from a year earlier. Even matching the 7.3 million arrivals recorded in November and December of 2019, when annual tourism peaked at almost 40 million, would leave this year’s total just below the 32.9 million recorded in 2025.
The prolonged shortfall matters for an economy where tourism accounts for about a fifth of economic activity and supports millions of jobs and businesses, from hotels and airlines to restaurants and retailers.
The slowdown also coincides with a tougher government stance toward some foreign visitors, with authorities stepping up deportations and enforcement against those accused of breaking local laws or behaving inappropriately. The shift in tone contrasts with the easygoing hospitality that has long been central to Thailand’s appeal as a tourist destination.
Government officials have increasingly emphasised spending rather than sheer visitor numbers, but that measure is also weaker. International tourism revenue fell about 3% so far this year, even as average spending per visitor through October rose 1.8%.
The Bank of Thailand expects about 32 million visitors in 2026, while the Thai Hotels Association forecasts 31.5 million to 32 million. Both are below the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s 33 million target.
China had been a bright spot, with arrivals through October up 12% to 4.2 million. In October, however, Chinese arrivals fell 14% from a year earlier, the first decline in nine months, after China’s embassy warned its citizens about kidnappings and human trafficking tied to scam centres operating across Southeast Asia, including cases involving travellers lured through Thailand.
Kasikorn Research Center expects 4.9 million Chinese visitors this year, less than half the roughly 11 million Thailand received in 2019.
Malaysia has weakened more sharply. Arrivals from Thailand’s biggest market last year fell 16% to 3.2 million through October. Kongsak Khoopongsakorn, a manager at Vijitt Resort Phuket, said memories of flooding in southern Thailand last year, including damage to Malaysian visitors’ cars in Hat Yai, have made some reluctant to return during the rainy season.
External shocks have added to the strain. Thai Hotels Association president Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun said monthslong airspace disruptions related to the Middle East conflict hurt European connections through regional aviation hubs, while higher fuel costs prompted some low-cost carriers to reduce flights.
The weak outlook is also complicating government efforts to extract more revenue from travellers. The Finance Ministry postponed a proposed 1,000-baht (US$30 or RM120.91) departure tax in October, while a planned 450-baht entry fee for foreign visitors remains under review.
The pressure is accelerating a shift in how Thailand measures tourism success. The government’s draft tourism plan for 2028-2032 targets at least four trillion baht (US$120 billion or RM480 billion) in domestic and international tourism revenue, up from 2.7 trillion baht in 2025, with a greater emphasis on higher-spending visitors, better services and spreading tourism beyond established destinations.
But the industry remains uneven. Kasikorn Research Center expects accommodation revenue to rise 2.6% this year, even as 148 accommodation businesses registered closures in the first nine months, up 42%. Thienprasit said luxury hotels are performing well while properties dependent on group tours remain under pressure.
Thailand is also confronting a more competitive regional neighbourhood. Vietnam’s cheaper hotels and rapid infrastructure development are increasingly attractive to price-sensitive Asian travellers, according to Bill Barnett, managing director of hospitality consultancy C9 Hotelworks.
Barnett compared Vietnam’s infrastructure push with China’s in the late 1990s and early 2000s, while Thailand has delayed or shelved many projects. With Thai infrastructure already stretched at the 2019 tourism peak, he said the industry may need to rethink how it measures recovery.
“Maybe the metric needs to be reset to a reasonable level,” he said.
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