(Nov 4): Asian tech stocks looked set to rise after a revival in the artificial-intelligence trade lifted Wall Street, as investors awaited the results of the US midterm elections.
Equity-index futures for South Korea and Taiwan pointed higher, while those for Australia fell. Contracts for Japanese stocks edged lower as traders returned from a holiday.
US chipmakers rallied, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 2.6% after a recent rout fueled by concerns over the scale of AI spending. The rebound lifted the Nasdaq 100 by 0.7%. Adding to the optimism, Super Micro Computer Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. both gave stronger-than-expected revenue forecasts, while Meta Platforms Inc. drew solid demand for its first bond sale in six months.
Elsewhere, Brent crude hovered near US$104 a barrel on Tuesday as traders weighed conflicting signals on US-Iran peace talks. Treasury yields rose after US job openings climbed to a four-month high, while the dollar strengthened.
The rebound in technology shares now faces the US midterm results, which may remove a key source of uncertainty and refocus investors on the outlook for AI spending and geopolitical risks heading into year-end.
“The results could act as a clearing event removing some uncertainty, though developments around the AI theme and geopolitics are the primary forces driving markets heading into the final two months of the year,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones.
Millions of Americans are casting ballots Tuesday in races that will determine control of Congress as well as a range of local issues. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time.
Polymarket is pricing roughly a 95% probability of Democrats taking the House of Representatives and about a 77% chance of winning the Senate, pointing to the possibility of a sweep of both chambers.
“Tuesday’s elections could reshape the balance of power in Washington,” said Ken Mahoney at Mahoney Asset Management. “This will be good to put behind us as it has been an anticipated volatility event for quite some time.”
Geopolitical risks remained in focus as oil swung in choppy trading while investors parsed conflicting signals on the trajectory of peace talks between the US and Iran.
Tehran and Washington are reviewing fresh proposals from mediators aimed at resolving their differences and avoiding a return to all-out war, according to a diplomat briefed on the matter, following limited US airstrikes overnight.
Meanwhile, signs of resilience in the US labor market pushed Treasury yields higher. Job openings unexpectedly rose in September to a four-month high, while layoffs fell to their lowest level since March 2025 and quits increased.
The data may give Federal Reserve policymakers more room to focus on persistent inflation after leaving interest rates unchanged last week. The central bank raised rates in September for the first time in three years.
“For now, all signs point to a solid labour market, even if it is difficult for pockets of workers – namely those who are unemployed,” Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.
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