BEIJING/CHICAGO (Nov 2): Chinese buying of US farm goods other than soybeans is on track for a seven-year low this year despite an agreement to purchase billions of dollars in imports, a Reuters analysis of customs data showed, underscoring long-running uncertainties about the deal.

In May, the White House said Beijing agreed to buy US$17 billion (RM68.95 billion) of US agricultural goods annually from 2026, with this year's target prorated. Those purchases were on top of a commitment made in October last year to buy US soybeans.

While China is on track to hit its soybean target, it bought just US$7.2 billion worth of the other agricultural goods — from meat to corn — between January and September, the analysis showed. Imports are at their lowest for this period since 2019, at the height of the first trade war.

Whether Beijing is in breach of its commitment is unclear because the White House has not said whether the clock began after the announcement in May or will start once China's proposed tariff cuts have been finalised, which has yet to happen.

The sluggish buying nonetheless deepens doubts about a surge in imports this year, frustrating US farmers who are grappling with high fuel prices and driving Democrats' efforts to win heartland voters away from President Donald Trump's Republican party ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.

"Our growers are patriots, but there's a lot of bins of grain full and certainly a desire to see grain trade," said Tim Lust, chief executive of National Sorghum Producers, an industry group. "Beans are trading, but other commodities are not."

The US Department of Agriculture referred questions about the prorating schedule to the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR). The USTR, the White House and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.

Even if buying picks up, weak Chinese demand and stiff competition make the target difficult to meet unless Beijing orders state-owned buyers into action, analysts said.

Consider corn. At its peak in 2021, China imported US$5.6 billion worth of the crop — almost 20 million tonnes. Last month, COFCO Futures, a futures broker affiliated with the Chinese state trader, said US corn was not competitive partly because of ample domestic supply. It forecast imports of about 900,000 tonnes of US corn for the 2026/27 marketing year, which started in September.

US sorghum shipments to China peaked at 6.5 million tonnes worth US$2.1 billion in 2021 and now face competition from Brazil, which secured access in September 2025. Brazil has shipped 1.7 million tonnes to China so far this year, with nearly one million additional tonnes planned for shipment, said Eduardo Vanin, senior agriculture strategist at Marex.

The US exported about 3.7 million tonnes of sorghum to China up to the end of August, US government data shows, significantly higher than a year earlier, when trade stalled amid bilateral tensions, but sales have dried up over the past four months.

Chinese imports of US meat, once worth several billion dollars, face similar constraints. Pork and chicken are oversupplied domestically while US beef prices are high because herds have declined.

In addition, beef still faces regulatory barriers despite China renewing export licences in May for more than 400 US beef plants. About half of US fed-cattle slaughter capacity is ineligible to export to China, according to the US Meat Export Federation. Some plants were barred after Chinese authorities reported finding residues of substances not approved in China, said Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the federation.

Such constraints mean Beijing will probably need to lean on state buyers to meet the US$17 billion target, as it is already doing with soybeans, said analysts. Whether that happens is ultimately a political question, they added.

"Much of this seems to depend on how much China will use state-owned enterprises to do purchases," said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, a China-focused agricultural market intelligence firm.

"It's difficult to get to US$17 billion in non-soybeans without directed, non-market, purchases."

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