This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026

“London, Rome, Paris and Berlin We will fight and we will win.”

The ghost of this clarion call of the 1968 protests in Europe has returned, although what was Vietnam then is Iran today.

Many other issues are also different. And the prognosis is worse. The world is at its gravest state since World War II.

The Israeli-American attack on Iran at the end of February has caused shortages and high inflation in Europe, especially food and fuel. There are empty shelves in supermarkets.

The violent protests that swept across Europe on the weekend of Oct 17-18 are a precursor of worse to come, just as an escalation of the war against Iran will lead to a world depression.

Attacks on Iran’s vital infrastructure will result in retaliatory Iranian strikes on desalination plants, oilfields, refineries and transit routes of Gulf states. If the Iranian choke on the Strait of Hormuz puts up energy prices and limits supply to the global economy, an all-out strike and counter-strike in West Asia will dry up supply altogether — apart from the danger of the conflict itself getting out of control.

The Financial Times reported on Wednesday, Oct 21, that Israel was straining at the leash for a round three attack to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, power plants and regime targets earlier in the month, only to be held back by US President Donald Trump — until after the US mid-term elections on Nov 3.

With the inconclusive outcome of the Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to lead the Israeli government for months to come. With the US mid-terms coming up, when there is a three-month period before the new Congress is sworn in, there is sufficient time for Trump to play mischief.

The scenarios involving the two tyrants leading Israel and America are earth-shattering for the world. Will Netanyahu manoeuvre to stay in power by attacking Iran again thereby calling an emergency?

Trump can proclaim emergency power before or after the Nov 3 elections when he is expected to lose control of both the House and the Senate and thus be exposed to impeachment. At the very least he will contest the outcome and make it not possible for new members of Congress to be sworn in. With all-out war against Iran injected into the toxic situation, “the iron door of fascism will slam shut”, according to one commentator.

In Netanyahu’s words, he and Trump “have a job to finish” to bring Iran to its knees — leadership decapitation, regime change, no nuclear capability and destruction of all critical infrastructure. Nothing short of Tehran’s total defeat, which they have frustratingly not been able to achieve since launching their Feb 28 attack.

In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr (probably the best academic authority on Iran) wrote about “Iran’s Theory of Victory” where, based on lengthy conversations with Iranians of all ideologies, they evidenced how Iranian public opinion against the US and Israel has hardened. Trump’s constant threat to destroy the people, country and civilisation has brought Iranians of whatever political persuasion together.

As noted, the retaliatory Iranian attacks will be devastating in all the states in West Asia. Iran has also threatened to cut and destroy the seven major cables under the Strait of Hormuz which would wipe out 70%-90% of the Gulf’s internet capability, “the digital backbone of the global economy” — trillions in daily financial transactions.

In a situation of Israeli-American escalation not being able to deliver a knockout blow, a likely outcome given the failure of the Feb 28 attack, it cannot be discounted that a nuclear attack might play on Trump’s mind.

Such use of the nuclear option is not absent in American military strategy. In 1957, in his book Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, Henry Kissinger argued for a flexible “limited” nuclear strategy rather than just massive retaliation. It was not tried against the Soviet Union as its response could be massive.

With Iran, however, the US would not be risking such massive retaliation. The Soviet Union and China will not risk their cities to protect the Iranian people and civilisation.

Even if the Hiroshima- (15 kilotons) and Nagasaki- (21 kilotons) type bombs were used — they are comparable in yield to some tactical designs — against Iranian cities, it is not likely there will be massive retaliation from China and the Soviet Union. Israel will probably join with its stockpile, estimated at 90 to 400 warheads, to “finish the job” against Iran. In the bargain there might even be a false flag attack on a passenger airline crossing the Arabian Peninsula to justify the all-out attack on Iran.

In Japan over 200,000 people died as a direct result of the nuclear bombings of WWII, with long-term memorialised fatalities of over 525,000. Well versed as the Israelis are with death by numbers, they will argue it is a small price to pay. They might even add: The Japanese were eating out of American hands after they were devastated.

There will, of course, be an explosion of condemnation the world over but it is with Iranians that retaliation by conventional and other means will take place. It will be a bleak world but Iran will take it down with them.

It is usually the state of the world economy — a depression — that will be the main concern. One wonders what kind of condemnation will come from Europe should nuclear weapons be used against Iran. It took like forever for European governments to condemn the genocide in Gaza, 75,000 dead and 175,000 maimed and counting. Europe will not cross America, however much Trump treats it as the office boy of American foreign policy.

Europe has some very serious problems of its own. Trump and Elon Musk talk about immigration and how Europe has been invaded by Muslims, blacks and everything else not white. It would be churlish to dismiss this as any such force of entry into any nation state will cause a strain on resources and on national unity and integrity.

However, this does not go to the root of the European challenge. The riots of two weekends ago come from different sources but they point to one central structural problem. Insufficient production and productivity in the economy to support expectations far in excess of what can be brought to the table.

It has long been said you cannot work a 35-hour week, take off five weeks a year come what may, and rebel against any increase in retirement age despite an ageing population, and expect First World living standards. It will not work, immigrants or not — and especially if immigrants are willing to work longer hours and, what’s more, at lower rates.

With elections due soon in France and the AfD capturing the imagination in Germany, Europe’s structural problem will come home to roost with the depression resulting from a third attack on Iran, conventional or nuclear.

All countries will suffer of course, but not in equal measure, with those having diverse resources, better management and more resilient economies, more likely not to do as badly as Europe in a world depression.

Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid writes on global order and geopolitics from a non-Western perspective

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