(Oct 28): The US merchandise-trade deficit widened in September to the largest since March 2025 amid an ongoing surge in imports of capital goods.

The shortfall in goods trade grew 2.1% from the prior month to US$134.9 billion (RM551.03 billion), Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a US$130.2 billion deficit. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

The value of merchandise imports rose 2.4%, while exports advanced 2.6%. Imports of capital goods — a category that includes the computers and accessories, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment fuelling the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout — jumped 7.5%.

Wednesday’s figures suggest capital goods imports continued to weigh on the trade balance in September amid a rush to outfit data centres with components produced abroad. The category has been the primary driver of the sharp deterioration in the deficit over the last year as the AI investment boom has picked up in pace.

“So much of the hardware that the tech companies need is coming from overseas, driving a massive widening in the trade gap,” Stephen Stanley, the chief US economist at Santander Capital Markets, said in a note.

Capital goods exports rose 5.4% last month, according to the report, while exports of consumer goods advanced 6.5%. Exports of food, feeds and beverages jumped 12.8%. Exports of industrial supplies — a category which includes petroleum products and volatile nonmonetary gold trade — fell 1.6%.

Meanwhile, figures on retail inventories, released alongside the goods trade data, rose 0.3%. Wholesale inventories increased 0.6%.

The trade and inventories data will help inform the government’s estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Prior to the latest merchandise trade figures, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model saw net exports reducing GDP growth by 2.86 percentage points. In the second quarter, they subtracted 1.1 percentage points from GDP. 

“The massive drag on GDP growth from net trade in 3Q likely will be partly offset by a very big jump in equipment investment, and particularly computer equipment investment,” Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. “At least some of the import surge also likely will show up in inventories. That latest data, however, suggests that this offset will be modest.”

More complete monthly trade figures that include the balance on the services account and inflation-adjusted numbers on merchandise trade are due on Nov 4. Separate data published earlier this month showed September saw a 1.1% increase in import prices and a 2.2% rise in export prices.

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