SEOUL (Oct 27): South Korea's semiconductor exports could fall by US$50 billion to US$100 billion compared with earlier forecasts if capital spending on artificial intelligence by major US technology firms slows next year, according to central bank data.

In a written response submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, the Bank of Korea (BOK) modelled a "pessimistic scenario" to assess the economic fallout if US tech giants curb their aggressive infrastructure outlays.

Under the scenario, a sudden export shortfall would shave approximately 0.4 percentage point off South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate next year, by driving the country's current account surplus well below the central bank's initial projection of US$430 billion for 2027.

The scenario assumed a 10% decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices.

The assessment underscores growing anxiety over South Korea's heavy reliance on chips, which account for roughly half of its exports.

The report said combined capital expenditure by five major US technology firms, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle, has been growing rapidly, from US$40 billion last year to an estimated US$80 billion this year, and is projected to reach US$110 billion next year.

However, the BOK cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over the trajectory of AI demand and the broader memory chip business cycle.

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