SINGAPORE (Oct 26): Surging diesel prices and fertiliser supply disruptions could threaten agricultural production and raise food prices in the coming months, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned.

Agriculture costs may be rising as several countries enter their planting season, the agency’s executive director Fatih Birol said, noting that diesel prices have doubled since the outbreak of the Middle East war.

“What worries me is that this is very important for the global economy, and it is also very important for the agriculture sector,” he said.

The conflict in the Middle East coincides with the multi-year cycle of the El Niño heatwave that could shrivel trees and hurt crop production. In Malaysia, nearly one-tenth of its diesel supply comes from the Persian Gulf, while about one-fourth of urea fertiliser supply comes from the same region.

In April, when the crisis first emerged, the Food and Agriculture Organisation's chief economist Máximo Torero Cullen said "any country which uses fertiliser will have to pay higher prices".

Fertiliser usage could fall with the higher costs and drag on yields, with the impact to become more visible in the second half of 2026 and beyond, he added.