(Oct 12) : Oil advanced while the dollar edged higher in early Asian trading as investors weighed escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the risk of a widening Middle East conflict.

Global benchmark Brent crude advanced 0.4% to US$105.10 a barrel. The dollar was slightly stronger against major peers, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar was steady. S&P 500 futures gained after the underlying gauge closed 0.6% higher in New York on Friday. Cash Treasury trading is closed for holidays in the US and Japan.

Saudi Arabia’s main airport came under renewed Houthi attack Sunday, a day after a strike killed 12 people, raising the risk of a broader conflict that may draw in the US and further disrupt energy supplies and global trade. The escalation comes as Saudi Arabia backs a counteroffensive near Bab el-Mandeb, a critical shipping chokepoint between Asia and Europe.

The attacks threaten to inject fresh volatility into a pivotal week for markets, with inflation data due in the US and Europe and a host of central bank officials scheduled to speak. Further disruption to energy supplies may add to price pressures and bolster expectations for higher interest rates.

“In quieter conditions, geopolitical headlines can often have an outsized impact,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients. But with the US inflation reading, several central bank speakers and the start of another US earnings season this week, “there will be plenty for markets to digest,” he wrote.

Traders are looking to the latest US consumer-price data due this week and a scheduled appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for clues on the pace of further interest-rate increases. A stronger-than-expected September inflation reading may rekindle the recent bond selloff by putting pressure on the Fed to tighten policy more aggressively.

The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.4% last week, its highest since 2002, as Brent crude traded above US$100 a barrel and fueled concern that elevated energy costs may prolong inflation pressures.

Equities, meanwhile, have largely weathered the turmoil. The S&P 500 hit a record Tuesday before retreating over the next two sessions on concerns about AI demand, then rebounded Friday as investors turned toward another strong earnings season. The gauge remains within striking distance of its peak.

Investors will be watching for signs that higher costs are squeezing margins even as corporate America enjoys one of its strongest profit cycles in years. The S&P 500 has recorded seven consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth, and analysts expect third-quarter profits to rise roughly 25% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Elsewhere, the dollar traded in a narrow range against major peers after posting a fourth straight weekly gain, its longest winning streak since early 2025. Elevated oil prices and the war with Iran have supported the greenback as investors sought safety.

Speculative traders remain bullish on the dollar, betting the US economy is better placed than its major peers to withstand further interest-rate increases. Fiscal concerns in France and elevated energy prices have weighed on the euro, which touched its lowest since May 2025 last week, providing additional support for the greenback.

“The case for US dollar to break out of its 15-month range is increasingly compelling,” Barclays strategists led by Themistoklis Fiotakis wrote in a note to clients. “US growth outperformance, limited scope for lower yields and Europe’s fiscal and energy vulnerabilities point to further upside. However, stretched long positioning could interrupt the rally in the near term.”

uploaded by Isabelle Francis