(Oct 9): Bets for who will take home the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize surged overnight on Polymarket, echoing similar events a year ago when a website hacking likely leaked the winner’s name.

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, has suddenly emerged as the frontrunner in betting on the Polymarket platform before the announcement due later on Friday. 

Her odds went as high as 65.5% at one point, now sitting at around 46% with more than US$1.7 million (RM6.95 million) in betting volume. The event overall has volume of just over
US$30 million.

Last year, a leak of Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado’s name triggered an unusual betting surge on the Polymarket platform hours before she was unveiled as the award recipient. The Venezuelan opposition leader hadn’t previously been considered a favourite for the 2025 prize. 

An investigation by the Norwegian Nobel Institute assisted by security authorities later concluded that an individual or a state actor may have illegally gained access to its website in a cyber breach.

Navalnaya, from exile, has carried on her husband’s campaign after his February 2024 death in an Arctic prison which his supporters and Western governments blamed on the authoritarian regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Arguably the most prestigious prize in global diplomacy, the Nobel Peace Prize has stirred more controversy. Last year, US President Donald Trump, who has long coveted the award, aggressively campaigned to obtain the award, in vain. Earlier this year, Machado gifted her medal to Trump, stunning Norway.

The Nobel prizes are annual awards for achievements in physics, chemistry, medicine, peace and literature. They were established in the will of Alfred Nobel, the Swedish inventor of dynamite who died in 1896. 

All except the Peace Prize are awarded in Stockholm, and this year’s awards come with 12 million kronor (RM4.9 million) of money.

Uploaded by Evelyn Chan