(Oct 2): A months-long crisis over the monarchy in a small Malaysian state has become a potential stumbling block for the United Malays National Organization, which had been gaining ground on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Umno and its allies wrested control of the state, Negeri Sembilan, from Anwar’s coalition in August elections, having vowed to resolve a messy dispute over the status of the state’s royal ruler. While politicians have no official role in the process, the pitch to voters was that Umno could mediate a solution and restore calm.

The problem for Umno now, however, is that the crisis appears to have worsened since its victory, creating poor political optics for a party on the cusp of a comeback.

“Umno underestimated the intensity of the crisis, and its actions since August have both escalated the crisis and put the party in the spotlight for blame,” said Bridget Welsh, a researcher of Malaysian politics with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute-Malaysia.

The episode is just one facet in Anwar’s battle for political survival. Having emerged from the 2022 election as premier with the help of former rival Umno, he’s now struggling to maintain that fragile coalition. Umno, meanwhile, is seeking to recover its place as the dominant force in Malaysian politics, a position it held from independence until 2018 by championing the cause of the country’s ethnic Malay majority and respect for its monarchy.

It’s unclear how the standoff will get resolved. Umno doesn’t have power to force a resolution, so the best it can do is mediate an agreement between all parties. The spat may also end up in Malaysia’s highest court, or may be decided by the Conference of Rulers, a council made up of nine monarchs who each take turns serving as king.

For now, Umno’s stumble in Negeri Sembilan, as well as the recent royal clemency granted to party grandee and disgraced former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, offers Anwar a small opening to cast his Pakatan Harapan coalition as a pillar of stability.

Even if Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan doesn’t benefit, it’s a headache for Umno, said Adib Zalkapli, the founder of Viewfinder Global Affairs, a geopolitical risk consultancy. “From the outside it looks like Umno is interfering in Negeri Sembilan royal affairs.”

Among the latest developments in the state, its new cabinet last month endorsed the earlier attempt to remove the state’s monarch, Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir. Days later, he exercised his constitutional power and revoked the appointments of the Umno-led cabinet.

Unique to Negeri Sembilan state, the monarch is elected by four chieftains, who are also the only ones who can remove the ruler. Both Malaysia’s attorney general and a state panel declared their recent attempt invalid because they haven’t proven he’s incapable of ruling.

Umno’s Datuk Ismail Lasim, the state’s chief minister, has insisted the council will continue to function, despite the monarch’s move. On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister and Umno leader Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said Ismail has the mandate to fix the crisis.

Ismail said the issue is yet to be resolved after he met Tuanku Muhriz at the state’s palace on Tuesday, news outlet Astro Awani reported. Ismail’s office and the Negeri Sembilan palace didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

“For party leader Zahid, the crisis tarnishes an otherwise smooth leadership record as the party stages its comeback,” said ViewFinder’s Adib.

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