MUMBAI (Oct 1): Global vegetable oil prices may rise in the coming months and into 2027 on tighter supply as disrupted Black Sea sunflower-oil shipments coincide with declining South American soyoil exports, a leading industry analyst said on Thursday.

Sunflower oil shipments from Russia and Ukraine would be around 300,000-350,000 metric tonnes below potential each month from October if a safe shipping corridor is not established, said Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World.

India is likely to be among the countries most affected by the disruption, possibly having to increase its palm oil purchases to secure supplies if Black Sea shipments remain delayed, he said on the sidelines of the Globoil conference in Mumbai.

The world's biggest importer of edible oils last week cut its basic import duty on crude sunflower oil to zero from 10%.

Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ports in the Black Sea region in recent weeks have disrupted loading operations for shipments of grains and vegetable oils.

Meanwhile, soyoil exports from South America have passed their seasonal peak and are expected to decline from October, Mielke said.

Slower global production growth of oils and fats means the vegetable oil industry is struggling to keep pace with demand, especially for biodiesel, due to higher energy prices, he added.

Palm oil has become more competitive following its recent price correction and that should encourage buying by importers such as India as they seek to replace sunflower oil with it, said Mielke, contributing to a recovery in palm oil prices into 2027.

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