JAKARTA (Oct 1): Indonesia booked a surprisingly large trade surplus of US$3.55 billion in August, official data showed on Thursday, well above market expectations, but some economists doubted the position was sustainable.

The August surplus was the widest since September 2025, according to LSEG data, and significantly higher than the median forecast for a surplus of around US$630 million in a Reuters poll.

The large surplus could ease concerns about Indonesia's worsening current account position, after the country posted its biggest deficit since 2018 in the April-June quarter.

But Irman Faiz, an economist at Bank Danamon, said that while the surplus provided a near-term foreign exchange buffer, the improvement was "precarious rather than structural".

Faiz attributed it to softer-than-expected imports that he said were temporary.

"We therefore remain cautious on the external outlook, particularly as the terms-of-trade backdrop has become less favorable," he said.

Danamon continues to expect the central bank to further tighten monetary policy to navigate external pressures, he said.

Indonesia, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia, is the world's top exporter of thermal coal, palm oil and nickel and a major supplier of tin, copper, aluminium and coffee.

The country has benefitted from rising prices of some of its top commodity exports this year, with some gains driven by rising global crude prices due to the Middle East conflict. However, as a net oil importer, its import bills have also soared.

Exports rose 6.72% on a yearly basis in August to reach US$26.61 billion, according to Statistics Indonesia, compared with a 4.3% increase expected in the Reuters poll.

The better-than-expected rise was driven by higher shipments of non-ferrous base metal products, nickel, aluminium, copper and base chemical products.

Imports rose 19.09% on a yearly basis to US$23.06 billion, below the 31.14% surge forecast in the poll.

Resilient import growth is expected going forward, with improvement in the purchasing managers' index in September, while exports could face headwinds from soft demand, said Bank Permata economist Faisal Rachman.

He forecast Indonesia's current account deficit to widen to 2.49% of GDP in 2026 and stay around that level in 2027, significantly wider than the 0.09% in 2025, with the central bank seen keeping its tighter monetary policy stance.

Bank Indonesia raised policy rates by 100 basis points between May and June to defend the falling rupiah currency.

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