(Sept 23): Asian stocks were poised to extend their winning streak after chipmakers drove the Nasdaq 100 to its first record since June, while falling oil prices provided a further boost amid hopes for progress toward ending the war with Iran.

Equity-index futures for Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia pointed higher, putting a broader gauge of regional shares on course for a sixth straight day of gains. Japanese markets remained closed for a holiday. 

Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed in early Asian trading after the underlying index rose 0.8%. A closely watched semiconductor gauge climbed. Shopify Inc jumped 7.1% after striking a partnership with Meta Platforms Inc for its Muse AI product. 

US oil edged lower in early trading after Brent crude settled at US$99.25 a barrel as President Donald Trump said US officials had a “very good” meeting with Iranian envoys in New York as Washington renewed efforts to end the conflict. Treasuries steadied across the curve, the dollar edged higher and gold pared its losses.

The outlook for stocks may hinge on whether diplomatic progress can push oil lower, easing inflation concerns and taking pressure off bond yields. Signs of a breakthrough in talks with Iran may give the equity rally fresh impetus, while any setback risks reviving concerns over energy prices and the path for interest rates.

“Focus will stay on geopolitics, and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the US and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Wall Street is also gearing up for this week’s summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will offer the leaders of the world’s two largest economies a chance to improve personal ties and look for common ground on contentious topics.

Some of the biggest names in technology are set to attend a White House state dinner for Xi, including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, according to a person familiar with the planning. He’ll join Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Qualcomm Inc. head Cristiano Amon. OpenAI President Greg Brockman will also attend, the ChatGPT maker said Monday, alongside CEO Sam Altman.

Oil prices wavered after Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and Saudi Arabia said it expects to resume operations on its East-West pipeline this week, as the Trump administration renewed efforts to end the conflict and the president said the war would end shortly after November’s US midterm elections.

The conflict has pushed gasoline prices higher, disrupted global oil flows and led Iran to target US bases in the region, killing 19 US service-members. Iran has so far maintained its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have again threatened shipping in the Red Sea.

“The elevated flows through the Strait point to a loss of Iranian leverage, which suggests they could be more open to making a deal than previously, but it also increases the probability of escalation in an attempt to reassert control,” said Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Investors are also parsing Fed commentary for clues on the rate path after last week’s quarter-point hike. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin warned inflationary shocks could take time to fade, while Boston’s Susan Collins backed the increase and St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said further hikes may be needed.

“The market’s pricing in three hikes from here. I would take the other side of that,” said Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management. “Four hikes over the course of a year is a pretty dramatic response to the economic backdrop and would have real reverberations through the macro economy.”

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