This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on September 21, 2026 - September 27, 2026

Climate scientists have rung the alarm bells: El Niño is underway, with a "super" El Niño developing in the coming months, bringing intensified drought, heatwaves and heavy rainfall. We’re already seeing the effects of it across the world. In Spain, Italy and France, sweltering summer temperatures reached over 40°C. Heatwaves in South Asia and the Middle East saw temperatures exceeding 45°C, with Oman and central India hovering close to 50°C.

In Malaysia, due to strengthening El Niño conditions, we could see temperatures soar to 40°C by early 2027. During the 1997/98 El Niño catastrophe, when temperatures hit 40°C, the country experienced unprecedented drought, heat stress and transboundary haze. These conditions severely impacted agricultural yields and rural livelihoods, requiring rice imports of over a million tonnes and causing a 15% decline in palm oil production, according to an article published in the Asian Journal of Earth Sciences in 2016. Thick smog that blanketed the nation drove up respiratory illness, costing US$600,000 and US$1.8 million in hospitalisation and outpatient costs, respectively, according to a 2018 literature review in Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine.

This El Niño event will result in similar, if not more intense, disasters in the coming months. The National Disaster Management Agency has already warned of a prolonged dry spell between May and October this year, with rainfall reducing by 10% to 20%. The World Bank predicted that Malaysia will need to spend between US$852 billion and US$1.13 trillion by 2050 on climate adaptation.

At this point, it must be emphasised that El Niño is not the catalyst of these dangerous conditions, it is merely a symptom of “capitalogenic” (generated by the systems and accumulation of capitalism) climate catastrophes, largely driven by the fossil fuel industry.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has confirmed that fossil fuels are the key drivers of planet warming, with 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 attributed to their use. A Carbon Majors report revealed how 100 fossil fuel companies are responsible for 71% of industrial greenhouse gas emissions since 1988. In this database, our national oil company (NOC), is ranked as the 37th largest emitter worldwide, making Malaysia both a victim and driver of fossil fuel-induced climate change.

Contrary to the anti-mitigation narratives of the fossil fuel lobby, Malaysia holds significant mitigation responsibility. In a first-of-its-kind report by RimbaWatch, it was found that Malaysia had overshot its fair share of the global carbon budget in 2023 (not accounting for the country’s NOC emissions). As such, every tonne of carbon dioxide emitted since then has been an appropriation of the atmospheric commons.

While the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) acknowledges collective stewardship and responsibility, these obligations have not been adequately translated into effective mitigation strategies. Instead, the NETR centres the role of fossil gas as both a transitional and destination fuel, aiming for fossil gas to account for 56% of the total primary energy supply by 2050, while targeting a paltry 23% for renewables. Malaysia’s reluctance to phase out was further emphasised by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who stated that hydrocarbons will continue to be central to the energy mix.

Under the guise of balancing net zero ambitions with continued development, Malaysia continues to facilitate the expansion of fossil fuels. For context, as of 2023, Malaysia planned to lock in emissions of 4.15 billion tonnes from committed reserves (equivalent to India’s emissions that year), according to a 2025 report by RimbaWatch and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Further, the country plans on adding as much as 8gw of gas-fired power capacity, a more than 50% increase from current levels, according to reports.

Instead of prioritising the urgent and economically sound transition to renewables, while upholding our mitigation responsibilities, Malaysia’s climate policies continue to centre fossil fuels, risking emissions lock-in and the financial burden of stranded assets. The important question to ask now is, how should Malaysia navigate effective climate strategies and responsibility moving forward?

Multiple supply shocks, driven by imperialist agenda, have shown that Malaysia must prioritise energy security and affordability, while adhering to urgent warnings from climate science communities on the necessity to phase out fossil fuels. Studies from Ember Energy in 2024 showed that solar energy in the peninsula was 53% cheaper than fossil fuels in 2023, indicating the availability and affordability of renewables. Further, Malaysian leaders and policymakers must join other global majority states in taking a strong stand against big polluters, including through participating in Fossil Fuel Treaty discussions and quietening voices from the fossil fuel lobby in our own backyard. As the International Court of Justice has ruled that states could be violating international law due to continued fossil fuel activity, Malaysia is also now under a legal obligation to set immediate targets for a complete phase-out of all fossil fuels.

With El Niño at our doorstep, the lives of Malaysians and our ecosystems are at risk. If we keep practising short-termism in our climate targets, we will only see the escalating frequency and intensity of such weather events, particularly impacting vulnerable communities. Malaysia must uphold its moral and legal obligations for a chance at achieving socio-ecological prosperity in a more temperate world. 

Nithiyah Tamilwanan is the head of research and engagements at RimbaWatch

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