Exports adjusted for working-day differences rose 89.8% from a year earlier in the first 20 days of September, according to customs office data released Monday. That compared with an initially reported 61.5% increase during the same period in August. 

On an unadjusted basis, shipments gained 78.3%, while imports increased 26.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of almost $23 billion.

Semiconductors remained the primary driver of the advance, with chip exports surging 259.4% from a year earlier. Shipments of petroleum products rose 47.8%, while automobile exports gained 9.3%.

The data indicate that South Korea’s trade momentum remained strong at the end of the third quarter, reinforcing the Bank of Korea’s (BOK) view that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs.

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3% in August, its second consecutive hike, as stronger-than-expected growth and persistent underlying inflation prompted policymakers to act preemptively.

The BOK also upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, citing robust exports and investment driven by the global AI build-out. Its six-month rate projections had a median of 3.25%, implying one more quarter-point increase, though governor Shin Hyun Song said the figure pointed to a gradual pace of tightening after the back-to-back moves.

Minutes of the August meeting showed most board members supported the bank’s tightening bias to prevent inflation and financial imbalances from worsening, while some members noted that the timing of further action should depend on incoming data and the impact of the two recent hikes.

The strength of the chip cycle has boosted corporate earnings and investment in South Korea, though policymakers are still waiting to see how much those gains boost household consumption and ripple through the rest of the domestic economy.

Inflation remains another key consideration for the BOK. Headline consumer inflation rose 3.1% in August, while core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.4%, indicating underlying price pressures remained firm.

The won’s appreciation in recent months has helped curb imported inflation, giving policymakers some flexibility over the timing of the next increase. Solid export growth and the resulting improvement in South Korea’s external position may support further currency gains. 

By destination, exports to China increased 113.8%, while shipments to the US rose 118%. Exports to Vietnam and the European Union gained 44.8% and 37%, respectively.

Uploaded by Liza Shireen Koshy