The odds of the Clarity Act passing this year, which had jumped above 30% on Polymarket during the US trading session, fell back to 18% early Tuesday in Asia. That saw Bitcoin — which accounts for around 60% of the market value of all cryptocurrencies — retreat from as high as US$79,586 to below US$78,000 as of 8:40am in Singapore.
US Senator Mark Warner told reporters at the US Capitol that a group of Democratic negotiators would send a counteroffer to Republicans ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal procedural vote on the Clarity Act, the comprehensive crypto regulation bill that has been stuck in partisan wrangling for a year. The bill will need a number of Democrats to cross party lines to advance and move later to final passage thanks to the Senate’s 60-vote rule for most legislation.
“Odds of a 2026 signing sat above 70% in May, collapsed to the low teens through August and rebounded towards 30% on Monday. That is a market with no stable read,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, citing prediction-market odds. Still, “a counteroffer is consistent with a negotiation that is still live, not one that has broken down,” she said.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters earlier Monday that progress had been made in recent days, but he didn’t know if the votes would be there to advance the bill Tuesday.
The biggest sticking point has been ethics provisions that Democrats have seen as inadequate to prevent President Donald Trump from continuing to profit from crypto after he reported US$1.4 billion in income last year. But other issues, including concerns from banks that crypto stablecoins could siphon their deposits, have also been the subject of massive lobbying efforts.
Republican senators released a final draft of the bill, with changes addressing some of its most contentious points.
The new version would give the Treasury secretary power to intervene if deposit flight became “detrimental” to community banks. It also added new ethics guardrails for the president and other elected officials holding cryptocurrencies. The new ethics rules would force the president to divest from virtual assets or place significant holdings in a blind trust, or else face financial penalties. It also empowered state attorneys general to play a role in enforcing the ethics rules.
Shares of crypto-related companies rallied Monday, with digital exchange Coinbase Global Inc jumping 9.2% and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group Inc increasing 7.5%.
Still, for some industry observers, the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting may turn out to be the most market-moving event for the digital-asset market this week.
“Markets now price roughly an 86% to 87% chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike on Wednesday, and Bitcoin appears to have absorbed much of that base case by holding in the mid-to-high US$70,000s rather than breaking its August structure,” said Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet. “The larger repricing risk would come from a hawkish surprise in the statement.”
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