KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 10): Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd (KL:PMETAL) is likely to see another record quarter thanks to supply disruption from the Middle East conflict, an analyst said.

Net profit for the June-end quarter may come in at RM750 million to RM800 million, an increase of up to 32% quarter-on-quarter and 56% year-on-year, thanks to higher average aluminium prices and the elevated premiums for imports into Japan, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank in a note.

“The aluminium market is likely to remain in deficit” throughout 2026 as conflict-related disruptions have removed about three million tonnes of supply from the market, the research house said.

Press Metal is scheduled to report its results before the end of August.

Aluminium prices per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have retreated from a recent high of US$3,800 (RM15,538) to around US$3,200 following the US-Iran peace deal. Uncertainties, however, remained high with no signs of permanent end to the conflict in the Middle East.

The Main Japanese Port aluminium premium, the extra cost on top of the LME price for physical delivery, remained elevated in the third quarter at around US$350 per tonne, its highest levels in over a decade. Shares of Press Metal, meanwhile, have declined nearly 15% from their peak in June.

“We believe this is driven by the continued tightness in the physical market,” with supply from Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates yet to fully recover, Hong Leong Investment said.

While geopolitical tensions remain volatile, aluminium prices are unlikely to surge as the market is increasingly pricing in a surplus for 2027 with new supply from Indonesia and India, alongside resumptions of Middle East smelters, Hong Leong Investment said.

The hawkish US Federal Reserve could also weigh on base metal prices, the house said, noting that ongoing supply deficit in 2026 and lingering concerns over continued Strait of Hormuz closure should set a floor for aluminium prices.