This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on August 10, 2026 - August 16, 2026

A Merdeka Center survey conducted in March and April showed Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the most ideal choice for the post of prime minister. He came out top among seven candidates.

Anwar was followed by Khairy Jamaluddin and former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang and Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi came in last in the survey, which received responses from 1,209 registered voters.

However, the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections clearly showed that the Zahid-Hadi combination is the choice of the majority. Based on current trends, the Barisan Nasional coalition, in alliance with PAS, is expected to return to helm Putrajaya in the next general election.

On paper, BN is a multiracial coalition, but in reality, its identity is Muslim-bumiputera-based, with Umno as the hegemon. PAS is a Muslim-only party with Hadi as its supremo. The voting in Johor and Negri Sembilan consolidated the support of both bumiputera-Muslim-based groups into a single force.

The outcome is devastating for Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.

The two state elections point to some misplaced perceptions in past surveys regarding the importance of the economy to voters and the ability of non-Malays to make a difference in the upcoming general election.

First, surveys — whether for political or economic purposes — become irrelevant when the voter base is polarised. In such an environment, emotions take precedence over logic, and social media tends to shape voter sentiments.

In a polarised environment, partisan voters tend to follow groupthink. They often believe that current conditions are dismal simply because the rival party is in power. Such sentiments are rarely captured in surveys.

For instance, surveys indicate that the main concern among voters is bread-and-butter issues, such as the rising cost of living.

Yet, economic numbers do not seem to suggest a dramatic hike in living costs. The inflation rate is hovering at 1.9% despite the ongoing global energy crisis, compared with 4.6% in August 2022 during the spike in food inflation.

Perhaps the biggest giveaway regarding the cost of living comes from the sales of entry-level cars, which are primarily purchased by the M40 and B40 groups.

Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua (Perodua), the producer of entry-level vehicles largely bought by lower-income groups, has been chalking up record sales since 2023. Which begs the question: Are the buyers of Perodua models really outside the B40 and M40 groups?

Second, economic reforms — the main selling point for the Anwar administration — have not moved voters in his favour.

Anwar’s strategy has been to cut expenditure and leakages, channelling the resulting savings into higher direct financial assistance for the B40 and M40 income groups, which make up the majority of the voter base.

In 2022, the Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri administration, which ruled Putrajaya for 15 months until November 2022, spent almost RM8.9 billion on direct financial assistance, benefiting some 8.2 million people.

That amount has grown significantly over the last three years.

At the latest count, the Anwar administration has allocated RM15 billion, benefiting nine million people. On top of that, all Malaysians above 18 years old receive an occasional RM100 credited to their MyKad to be spent on essentials.

The funds for this direct financial assistance largely came from the implementation of targeted subsidies for electricity, eggs, petrol and diesel. The initiative to rationalise the blanket subsidy on fuel alone shaved between RM4.5 billion and RM7 billion off the annual subsidy bill, depending on global oil prices.

The Anwar administration inherited a government with a weak balance sheet in 2022. The economy was recovering from the pandemic, and fiscal numbers had ballooned during the BN-PH transition period. The fiscal deficit stood at almost 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022.

That fiscal deficit is now down to 3.6% and is expected to moderate further to 3% by 2028. Gross debt-to-GDP has also dropped to 60%, while the percentage of debt servicing relative to GDP has been tapering off from a high of 15% during the pandemic.

While a stronger balance sheet has assisted the government in weathering the ongoing energy crisis, this improved economic state has not translated into more votes for Anwar’s PH.

Finally, non-Malays must face the reality of their waning influence on the outcome of future general elections against a united front of bumiputera-Muslim parties.

At its root, this shift is driven by the declining population growth of Chinese and Indian communities relative to the increase in the Muslim population.

In 1980, the ratio between bumiputeras and non-bumiputeras was not as stark as it is today.

According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), the bumiputera community made up 57% of the population in 1980, including non-Muslim bumiputeras located mainly in Sabah and Sarawak. Combined, the Chinese and Indian populations accounted for 41%.

At the latest count, the Muslim-bumiputera population stands at 58%, while non-Muslim bumiputeras account for 12.5% — bringing the total bumiputera community to 70.5% of the population.

Meanwhile, the Chinese and Indian populations stand at 22% and 6.7% respectively.

The growth rate of the Chinese population in Malaysia has slowed since 2010, while the Indian population has grown only marginally over the last 16 years. The growth rate of the Muslim-bumiputera population has also moderated since 2000.

DOSM figures show that only the non-Muslim bumiputera population has grown significantly — by almost 50% over the last 26 years — albeit from a low base.

Assuming this trend continues, Chinese and Indian-based political parties will inevitably have to work alongside non-Muslim bumiputera parties if they hope to remain relevant in future elections.

M Shanmugam ([email protected]) is a contributing editor at The Edge.

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