BANGKOK (Aug 5): Thailand's headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.95% in July from a year earlier, following a 2.42% annual increase in the previous month, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday.

The reading compared with a forecast rise of 2.55% in a Reuters poll, and was inside the central bank's target inflation range of 1% to 3%.

The drop in the index was attributed to a decrease in oil prices, Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a briefing.

The probability of stagflation is low and is on a downward trend, Nantapong added.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, rose 1.34% in July compared to a year earlier.

The headline consumer price index is expected to rise in August, the ministry said.

Headline inflation is forecast to reach 2.09% in the third-quarter, Nantapong said. It stood at 1.21% in the January-July period.

The ministry maintained its full-year inflation forecast of 1.5% to 2.5% this year.

In June, the central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% and raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.3%. The next monetary policy review is on Aug 26.

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