(Aug 4): Southeast Asia is forecast to see drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions from August through October as El Niño strengthens, raising the threat of out-of-control wildfires and damage to crops.

Parts of the region, including large swaths of Indonesia, have a high chance of receiving below-normal rainfall, according to an analysis of several climate models conducted by the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre. Temperatures are also expected to be above average for the region during the period.

“El Niño conditions tend to lead to an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for much of the southern Asean region during August-October,” the centre said in its latest seasonal outlook on Tuesday, adding that the risk of fires and trans-boundary smoke haze could escalate.

The region’s rice farmers are already grappling with a dry spell that’s coming on top of high fuel and fertiliser prizes triggered by the war in Iran, with Thai prices recently touching an 18-month high. A prolonged period of expansive heat and dryness threatens to exacerbate the situation, potentially crimping yields and pushing prices up further.

The weather-roiling El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to continue intensifying in the coming months, and will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, according to US forecasters. While no two El Niños are the same, a stronger event raises the likelihood of severe impacts, such as extended drought in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia has stepped up cloud seeding operations, including in the major palm oil-producing region of Kalimantan, to replenish reservoirs and prevent fires, according to the country’s weather agency.

The latest forecast comes as wildfires are tearing through Europe and North America. Consecutive heat waves and worsening drought have transformed landscapes into kindling, forcing hundreds of thousands of residents to evacuate parts of Europe and the northwestern US.

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