Pakatan Harapan (PH) should go back to its roots of political and institutional reformation even if it is too late to fight against the BN-PN wave that is coming in GE16 

As I predicted, BN-PN easily won the Negeri Sembilan state elections by winning 25 out of 36 state seats (70%) with BN winning 18 (including 2 by MCA) and PN winning 7 (PAS 4, Wawasan 3). Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 11 seats (DAP 9, PKR 2) with two of its political heavyweights, Anthony Loke and Aminuddin Hassan, losing their state seats in Chennah and Linggi respectively.

PH’s vote share was 39.7% in 2026 compared to 44.4% in GE2022 (See table below). The major difference this time was that the Malay votes were not split between BN and PN and the two coalitions combined to win more than 55% of the popular vote, which is sufficient to win a comfortable majority of seats in a first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. Bersatu’s vote share plummeted to 2.7% with only one out of its 24 candidates retaining his deposit (N7 Jeram Padang).

My initial estimates of Malay and Chinese turnout for PRN 2026 were 78% and 62% respectively. In a 57% Malay electorate state like Negeri Sembilan where an estimated 80% of Malay voters supported BN or PN, this translates into an electoral advantage of slightly more than 7% for BN and PN candidates. My initial estimate for the Malay support for PH for PRN 2026 was less than 10%, at around 8%.

Among the Chinese voters who turned out to vote, more than 90% supported Pakatan Harapan but this wasn’t enough to “save” Anthony Loke in Chennah, which was effectively a 40% Chinese seat versus 60% Malay + Orang Asli who voted overwhelmingly for the BN / MCA candidate.

PRN 2026 wasn’t just a case of votes being transferred from PN to BN and from BN to PN. In 30 out of the 36 state seats, the share of vote for PH fell in PRN 2026 when compared to GE2022. (See chart below)

Out of the six state seats where PH experienced an increase in support were N1 Chennah and N32 Linggi (by 2.4% in both seats) but because most of the votes won by PN in GE2022 were transferred to BN in PRN2026, this small increase in support was overwhelmed by the even larger increase in support, especially among the Malay voters, for BN and PN.

What lessons can PH take away from this defeat?

If there was one piece of advice that I would give to PH and especially Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, it would be this – please focus on delivering the political and institutional reforms which were the fundamental reasons for which you promised while in opposition and move away from the short-term tactics which failed to deliver you the votes in Johor and in Negeri Sembilan. The electorate is too knowledgeable for you to try to win them over with short term tactics such as making public the Tabung Haji RCI three years after it was completed in the hope that it would sway some Malay voters, trying to make political capital out of the deportation of 5000 Rohingya back to Myanmar, and apologising for the “kuil issue” to the Indian community.

The institutional reforms that could be delivered before GE16 include: 

1. 10-year term limit to the tenure of the prime minister;

2. Separation of the Public Prosecutor and Attorney General roles;  

(Both of these bills were not tabled in the recently concluded parliamentary session)

3. Introducing an equal constituency allocation bill so that opposition MPs would receive the same allocation as government MPs;

(This is important especially since PH is likely to find itself back in the opposition after GE16)

4. Go back to pushing for electoral reform including a fair delimitation of constituencies at the federal and state levels.

The last reform is a good reminder to Anwar and PH leaders. In May 2024, Anwar had an opportunity to fill the vacancy of the Election Commission (EC) chairman. Many NGOs, including BERSIH and Tindak Malaysia, asked for the list of names for this position to be vetted by the Special Parliamentary Select Committee on Human Rights, Elections, and Institutional Reform, headed by PKR MP for Selayang, William Leong. I suggested a few candidates that were seen to be independent and respected by the public, especially with regard to electoral reform.

In the end, Parliament was not consulted and PM Anwar tabled a name, Datuk Seri Ramlan Harun, who is a retired civil servant, following the same modus operandi used by Barisan Nasional (BN) in the past, to fill the position of the EC chairman. (I have nothing against ex-civil servants, but they are the least likely to want to push for electoral reform independently). Would the Johor and NS state elections have been called at the same time if there was a more independent EC chairman? This would be something that would continue to haunt PH. It is noteworthy that PH leaders, including Anwar himself, have done and said almost nothing in terms of electoral reform including on the important delimitation of electoral boundaries which is supposed to start in 2026 and conclude in 2028. Ironically, a fairer delimitation of constituencies is one of the few things which could help PH in future elections but there is not enough time under this Madani administration. Pushing for these reforms is the right thing for PH to do even if it ends up in the opposition post GE16. The long suffering PH supporters deserves as much. 

Prepared by Dr Ong Kian Ming, adjunct professor, Taylor’s University, on July 27, 2026.