Prediction for Negeri Sembilan 2026 state election results: BN + PN likely to win a majority of state seats and hence, control of the state government but there are still a number of closely contested seats that could narrow the margin of victory for BN + PN.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) is putting up a brave fight to retain its hold on the Negeri Sembilan state assembly when the voters in the state cast their votes on Aug 1, 2026. Even though PH has been in control of the state legislature for two terms (2018 to 2023 and from 2023 to the recent dissolution of the state assembly), it has never had dominant control of the state assembly.

Table 1 shows that PH only won 53% of the popular vote and 20 out of 36 state seats in the 2018 general elections when Bersatu was still part of the PH coalition and PH’s Malay support then was above 20%. In the 2022 general election, PH’s vote share fell to 44.4% and if we use the results from the 2022 general elections to calculate the results for the state seats, PH would only have won 17 out of 36 state seats with BN winning 18 and PN winning one. It was only via a seat-sharing agreement in the 2023 state elections which allowed PH to maintain control of the state assembly with 17 seats and BN with 14 seats.

With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both of these coalitions will exceed 70% and allow candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote, which allowed PH to win a number of seats in the state elections in 2018.

Bersatu can act as a “spoiler” in some seats, which can help the PH candidates, but as will be seen later, there are not many of such seats where Bersatu candidates can make such a big difference.

Projecting the vote share of each coalition/party for Negeri Sembilan is a bit tricky as the electoral alliance has changed from PH + BN in 2023 to BN + PN in 2026 with Bersatu contesting as a weakened “third force” versus the more formidable PN coalition in 2023. I will publish my methodology of estimating vote transfers and voting support among the Malay, Chinese, Indian and Other voters for the 2026 state elections at a later date.

I will use the following turnout estimates to calculate the ethnic composition of individual seats for the 2026 state elections: Malay Turnout (80%), Chinese Turnout (65%), Indian Turnout (60%), Others Turnout (65%). I expect the overall turnout to be slightly higher than the 69% experienced in the Johor state elections because many of those who vote in Negeri Sembilan live and work in nearby Klang Valley. But I do anticipate the turnout difference between the Malay and non-Malay voters to persist, as per the Johor state elections, perhaps with a narrower difference.

After crunching the numbers, I find the following: Among the safe seats which are projected to be won by either PH, BN or PN, BN is likely to win 14, PN is likely to win three, and PH is likely to win nine. This will give BN + PN 17 seats, just two short of an overall majority to win control of the state assembly. Table 2 shows the list of closely contested seats and the ethnic composition of these seats.

Of the 10 seats listed in Table 2, six are Malay majority seats. All PN and BN need to do is to win these six seats to get to 24 seats. I predict that BN will win seats of Jeram Padang (N.07) and Linggi (N.32) and that PN will win the seats of Klawang (N.04), Serting (N.05), Sikamat (N.13) and Ampangan (N.14). Even if Tok Min (caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun) manages somehow to pull off an upset to win Linggi, this will still leave BN + PN with 23 seats, more than enough to form a comfortable majority in the state assembly.

The other “hot” seat of Chennah (N.01) is too close to call. DAP secretary general Anthony Loke is fighting hard, but the anti-DAP and anti-PH sentiment among the Malay community may be even too difficult for him to overcome in this 48% Malay constituency. And with a week of campaigning left, there is the possibility that BN/Umno may announce that if Loke’s opponent in Chennah, John Siow, defeats Loke, he will be made a member of the state exco. This announcement, together with a swing in the 7% of Orang Asli voters, many of whom still see BN as their “protector”, may be sufficient to give BN a small margin of victory.

To recap, I predict that BN will win between 23 and 25 state seats, and PH to win between 11 and 13 state seats, with PKR likely to pick up one state seat with the rest being won by the DAP.

Prepared by Dr Ong Kian Ming, adjunct professor, Taylor’s University, on July 27, 2026.