Profit after tax was €538 million (US$616 million), down from €820 million and missing Bloomberg analysts’ estimates of about €624 million. Ryanair said the conflict led to consumer hesitancy and later bookings amid concerns about jet-fuel shortages, according to a statement on Monday.

As the first major European carrier to report results for the quarter, Ryanair earnings provide an insight into how the region’s airlines have fared through the Iran war. The carrier said it needed to stimulate demand, and that fares in the fiscal second quarter are modestly down year-on-year despite a recent boost in bookings.

The carrier said it has no visibility into the second half, leading it to refrain from issuing any guidance for its full-year profit outlook. Any developments on fares in the first half will depend on bookings in August and September, it said. 

“We are well set for a good profitable year, but it’s too soon to put numbers on what that’s going to be,” chief financial officer Neil Sorahan said in an interview.

Short-haul capacity will remain constrained “until at least 2030” amid an aircraft shortage from Boeing and Airbus SE, as well as engine issues on some aircraft partially grounding fleets around the region. 

Sorahan also predicted that capacity will be additionally squeezed because of consolidation in the market, with rival EasyJet Plc the subject of a takeover battle between two US investors. That will lead a landscape in Europe dominated by the three mainline carriers as well as Ryanair, Sorahan said in a separate interview with Bloomberg Television. 

Unit and operating costs rose in the first three months of the year as Ryanair’s unhedged fuel portion more than doubled. The airline said its jet fuel price is 80% secured at US$67 a barrel through March, while full-year unit costs will depend on its 20% unhedged jet fuel over the next three quarters.

Ryanair said it will focus spending on expanding its Boeing Co 737 Max-10 fleet, shareholder dividends and the completion its buyback programme, while rebuilding the gross cash cushion back to €4 billion.

The stock is down about 12% so far this year, compared with a 55% gain over the course of 2025.

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