This article first appeared in Capital, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on June 29, 2026 - July 5, 2026
THE interim agreement between the US and Iran that was signed on June 17 has raised hopes that the war that has disrupted energy markets and threatened one of the world’s most important shipping lanes over the past three months will finally come to an end. The two countries have agreed to a road map that will lead to a permanent agreement within 60 days of the initial deal.
As negotiations continue, however, military activity and attacks have persisted, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire and the uncertainty surrounding any lasting peace. For Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, that uncertainty is precisely the point.
“Even if we get a muddy deal, I think the underlying challenges mean that we’re not going to go back to how it was before,” she tells The Edge on the sidelines of the Amundi World Investment Forum 2026 in Paris, before the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
The implications for investors extend far beyond the war in Iran. The world is entering an era shaped by economic warfare, strategic autonomy, supply-chain rerouting and shifting alliances, where geopolitical disruptions are becoming a recurring feature of the investment landscape, Rosenberg argues.
A new normal
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year highlighted the fragility of global trade routes at a time when geopolitical tensions are increasingly shaping markets.
Nearly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Its disruption revived memories of earlier energy shocks, from the 1973 oil embargo to the supply disruptions that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Although oil exports have continued through alternative routes with adjustments made by shipping operators, Rosenberg believes investors may be underestimating the longer-term implications. “The political situation is going to continue being disruptive, and I don’t think we’ll see a full reopening for things to go back to how it was,” she says.
At best, she expects a gradual reopening accompanied by periodic disruptions. Drone attacks, threats against shipping and regional tensions are likely to remain part of the picture even if a broader political agreement is reached, she adds.
“This is part of the geopolitical new normal, and that is very much reflected in our expectations. We have been saying that the level of geopolitical risk would rise, that we were going to see more conflicts, more disruptions, and that a lot of the things that we have taken for granted are now [being] challenged,” says Rosenberg.
From globalisation to rerouting
While the disruptions of recent years have fuelled predictions of deglobalisation, Rosenberg believes a different process is underway. In her view, trade is not disappearing so much as changing direction, with countries responding to geopolitical tensions by building new supply chains and forging new partnerships.
“I’ve never believed that we are deglobalising because we are rerouting all the time. We’re still very much deeply interconnected,” she says.
Since the Covid-19 pandemic, companies and governments have increasingly sought to diversify supply chains, reduce vulnerabilities and build redundancy into critical industries.
The shift accelerated after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine prompted Europe to rapidly cut its reliance on Russian energy. Similarly, shipping companies responded to attacks in the Red Sea by rerouting vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
“In this low-trust world, a lot of countries are trying to make up for the fractures by entering into new alliances and new deals,” says Rosenberg, pointing to recent trade agreements involving the European Union (EU), India, the UK and Mercosur (the South American economic bloc comprising Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay).
“It’s not about efficiency anymore. It’s about resilience and control,” she adds.
Rise of economic warfare
The rivalry between the US and China remains the defining geopolitical force shaping the new environment.
While tensions have eased from earlier peaks, Rosenberg argues that both powers are increasingly deploying economic tools that were once considered extraordinary. “We’re in a world of economic warfare,” she says.
Sanctions, tariffs, export controls and restrictions on critical resources are increasingly becoming standard instruments of statecraft rather than temporary measures. And the trend extends well beyond Washington and Beijing.
According to Rosenberg, the EU is developing its own defensive trade instruments, while countries around the world are reassessing dependencies in sectors ranging from semiconductors and rare earths to pharmaceuticals and energy.
Navigating a multipolar world
Unlike the Cold War era, when alliances were relatively stable and more clearly defined, countries today are navigating a more fluid geopolitical landscape. Governments are increasingly balancing relationships with multiple powers, cooperating on specific interests while competing on others.
“Multipolarity means frequently changing alliances,” says Rosenberg. As such, future partnerships are likely to be driven more by specific issues in areas such as trade, security, technology and energy than by traditional long-term alliances, she notes.
For middle powers such as Malaysia, that may prove advantageous. Rosenberg declines to comment specifically on Malaysia, but says the most effective strategy for many countries is likely to involve maintaining relationships with multiple major powers rather than aligning too closely with any one side. “A strategy of neutrality and multi-alignment with many different players is probably the best geopolitical strategy for this kind of world,” she observes.
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