KUALA LUMPUR (May 20): Malaysia’s export growth hit a four-year high in April, beating expectations and leading several research houses to raise their full-year forecasts.

Malaysia’s exports surged 36.9% year-on-year to a record RM182.74 billion in April 2026, driven mainly by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and automotive electronics that lifted electrical and electronics (E&E) shipments to an all-time high, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The figure far exceeded Bloomberg’s 9.5% growth estimate and was up 23% month-on-month.

Imports rose 20% to RM153.99 billion, supported by higher consumption goods imports, although capital and intermediate goods declined.

As a result, Malaysia’s trade surplus widened sharply to RM28.75 billion, compared with RM5.13 billion a year earlier and RM24.5 billion in March 2026.

Stronger-than-expected export growth led RHB Investment Bank (RHB IB) and BIMB Securities Research to raise their forecasts to above 15%, while MBSB Research lifted its 2026 export growth forecast to 8.8%.

RHB IB had previously projected a 9.3% export growth for 2026, while BIMB Securities Research had it at 3.5%. MBSB Research had initially forecasted a growth of 4.5% for the year. RHB IB raised its forecast on expectations that exports will stay strong, supported by steady regional growth and continued demand for E&E products.

MBSB Research, which also raised import growth projections to 7.5% from 5%, cited higher commodity prices, stronger re-exports, AI-driven infrastructure growth, and front-loading of electronics shipments ahead of US semiconductor tariffs for its upgrade.

BIMB Securities Research said its projections are based on expectations that re-exports will remain a key growth driver, highlighting Malaysia’s role in regional supply chains.

"Overall, April’s outturn points to resilient and synchronised external demand conditions, with both advanced and regional markets contributing to the upswing in Malaysia’s export performance," said BIMB Securities Research in a note.

It said its in-house forecast assumes crude palm oil prices at around RM4,400 per tonne, suggesting an upside bias for plantation earnings and exports contribution.

For manufacturing, BIMB Securities Research said refined petroleum and chemicals emerged as key beneficiaries of the current global supply disruptions, supported by both higher margins and stronger external demand.

“These developments collectively point to renewed upward momentum in manufacturing activity, reinforcing its role as the primary driver of export growth heading into 2Q2026,” BIMB Securities Research said.

Lower effective US tariff rates also provide a near-term upside by easing trade friction and supporting the region’s export outlook, it added.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, however, took a more cautious stance and maintained its 2026 export growth forecast at 2.5% despite the robust April outturn and year-to-date export growth of 19%.

In its note, it said April’s strong export performance appears exceptional, reflecting swift business responses to distortions from the prolonged Middle East war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, it noted that the conflict continues to amplify risks to global raw material supply and raise production costs, with no signs of abating to date.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research also warned that geopolitical tensions remain elevated with the possibility of renewed US-Israel action involving Iran.

In addition, the research firm flagged the potential return of the US tariff measures after July.

“We will review our export outlook in Jul-Aug as global supply strains in oil and raw materials become more evident in Jun-Jul,” UOB Global Economics & Markets Research wrote in a note.

RHB IB and BIMB Securities Research warned that higher oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict could disrupt crude oil and petrochemical supplies, raising production costs and slowing manufacturing activity in Asia.

MBSB Research also highlighted risks from rising geopolitical tensions, increased US trade protectionism, forced labour allegations, excess manufacturing capacity in Malaysia, and possible new tariffs on semiconductors.

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Malaysia’s April exports up 36.9% to record high on strong E&E demand, beating forecasts