KUALA LUMPUR (April 21): Malaysia is maintaining its 2026 projections for now, though better clarity on the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is expected to emerge after the release of April trade data.
Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (Matrade) chairman Datuk Seri Reezal Merican Naina Merican said it is still “premature” to revise the exports outlook for the year, which was kept intact at 3% to 5%.
Hence, he said Matrade is keeping its current forecast unchanged for now while monitoring closely the development in the Middle East.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East in March has added to uncertainties surrounding the trade outlook, raising concerns over possible supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs as the Strait of Hormuz faces disruptions.
"In a modest way, I want to maintain that figure … but there are a lot of unforeseeable circumstances that may happen in the future,” Reezal Merican said at a briefing for the trade update for the first quarter of this year.
“However, if tension aggravates or even escalates and leads to a global recession, then we may have to make adjustments,” he explained.
The decision to hold guidance is underpinned by better-than-expected trade performance in March, which came as a positive surprise despite earlier concerns of a slowdown, he noted.
“I was so worried about the performance of March — I thought it would decline, but it came out quite unexpectedly,” he said.
For March 2026, exports rose 8.3% to RM148.75 billion, marking the second-highest monthly value ever recorded, while imports increased by 10.4% to RM124.20 billion.
Total trade grew 9.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM272.95 billion, supported by growth in both exports and imports.
For the first quarter of this year (1Q2026), exports rose 12.7% to RM426.53 billion, while imports increased by 7.7% to RM363.31 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of RM63.22 billion. Total trade rose 10.4% to RM789.85 billion.
For 2025 as a whole, exports grew 6.5% to a record of RM1.607 trillion, while imports grew 6.2% to RM1.455 trillion. Total trade in 2025 surpassed the RM3 trillion mark for the first time, recording RM3.061 trillion after rising 6.3% y-o-y.