KUALA LUMPUR (April 8): Brent crude is likely to hover around US$100 (RM397.75) per barrel in the near term, despite a temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, according to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research.

In a note on Wednesday, the research house said disruptions in the global physical energy market are expected to persist, amid significant damage to key infrastructure and ongoing logistical bottlenecks.

A substantial portion of the region’s energy infrastructure — including refineries, pipelines and ports — has been damaged, with repairs likely to take months or, in some cases, years, it noted.

Shipping constraints also remain acute, with hundreds of oil tankers reportedly stranded on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

“It remains uncertain how many tankers and ships will be able to take advantage of this crucial window,” UOB said.

Some tankers have been diverted to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, reducing the likelihood that they can return in time to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Uncertainty over securing shipping insurance — with premiums rising sharply — may further limit vessel movements, it added.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged following the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran in late February 2026. The benchmark traded as high as US$119.50 per barrel in late March, its highest level since 2022.

It has since eased below US$100 following news of the ceasefire. At the time of writing on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading at US$93.69 per barrel.

UOB maintained its forecast for Brent crude at US$110 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 and US$100 per barrel in the third quarter.

Prices are expected to ease to around US$90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, as disruptions gradually subside.