KUALA LUMPUR (March 11): Trading opportunities in commodity-linked stocks are coming into focus as escalating Middle East tensions drive sharp gains in crude oil and aluminium, according to Maybank Investment Bank.
The research house noted that crude prices have surged nearly 46% in just two weeks — the steepest climb since the post-Covid-19 period — while aluminium has extended its bullish run, creating potential upside for related counters despite broader market volatility.
Maybank stated that the conflict could provide trading opportunities in commodities companies such as PETRONAS Chemicals Group Bhd (KL:PCHEM) and Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd (KL:PMETAL) and elevated freight rates could pose upside risk to Westports Holdings Bhd (KL:WRPTS).
“In the meantime, as long as the conflict prevails, there could be trading opportunities in PETRONAS Chemicals (higher average selling prices) and Press Metal (wider spreads).”
“The Middle East-related disruptions could keep effective vessel capacity tight due to route diversions, delayed network normalisation for Suez Canal transit and higher bunker costs. These factors are supportive of elevated freight rates, particularly on Asia-Europe lanes, which could pose upside risk to Westports," it further said in a note on Wednesday.
The firm advised selective positioning in commodities and dividend yield plays, adding that Malaysia's domestic sectors should remain resilient even as near-term uncertainty persists.
Furthermore, the plantation sector could benefit if the crude oil price rally could sustain above US$100 per barrel, as stronger biodiesel economics may accelerate Indonesia’s B50 mandate.
On the defensive side, the research house highlighted that banks and real estate investment trusts have higher dividends and have maintained consistent dividend payouts of 5-6%.
RHB Bank Bhd (KL:RHBBANK) appears to be the most resilient among the banks, still trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) despite recent weakness.
In its latest top picks, Maybank IB named RHB, SD Guthrie Bhd (KL:SDG) and IHH Healthcare Bhd (KL:IHH) as its preferred stocks, citing strong capital positions, leverage to CPO prices, and resilience to healthcare demand.
Meanwhile, the research house also maintained its year-end 2026 FBM KLCI target at 1,780, with a bear case of 1,550 should geopolitical risks weigh more heavily on global growth.