KUALA LUMPUR (March 10): A prolonged Middle East conflict presents few stock ideas, with NewParadigm Research favouring Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd (KL:PMETAL) over MISC Bhd (KL:MISC) due to greater exposure to aluminium supply disruptions versus liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping risks.

The research house noted that oil prices have surged past US$100 (RM393.05) per barrel as markets begin to price in a prolonged war. 

While tanker rates have spiked with very large crude carrier day rates for Middle East-China routes hitting US$500,000/day, MISC’s upside is limited as 73% of its tanker fleet is tied to long-term charters.

“We estimate the potential loss of revenue from the existing LNGCs (LNG carriers) could be about RM27 million/quarter assuming a charter rate of US$75,000/day for 25% stake across four vessels. Annualised, this would be an about 4% hit to earnings expectations,” it further said in a note on Tuesday.

By contrast, Press Metal is seen as a beneficiary of aluminium supply shocks. Qatar’s state-owned smelter has already shuttered 648,000 tonnes of annual capacity, with a restart expected to take up to 12 months. The Middle East accounts for 10% of global aluminium production, and further disruptions could tighten the supply.

“Additionally, coal prices have risen 24%. Press Metal’s own energy costs are fixed but higher electricity costs will hurt Chinese competitors. Electricity accounts for 40% of smelting costs, and Press Metal has the distinct advantage of a fixed tariff thanks to the power purchase agreement tied to the Bakun dam,” the research house said.

For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2025 (FY2025), MISC’s net profit rose 42.44% to RM1.70 billion from RM1.19 billion in FY2024, even as revenue fell 15.8% to RM11.15 billion from RM13.24 billion previously.

MISC declared a fourth interim dividend of 14 sen per share, amounting to RM624.9 million, payable on March 26, bringing total dividends for FY2025 to 38 sen per share compared with 36 sen in the previous year.

Meanwhile, for the full FY2025, Press Metal’s net profit grew 19% to RM2.1 billion — a fresh all-time high — from RM1.77 billion in FY2024, as revenue gained 8.7% to RM16.2 billion from RM14.91 billion.

The group declared a fourth interim dividend of two sen per share, payable on March 30.

Press Metal ended Monday trading on Bursa Malaysia at RM7.49 per share, while MISC ended its trading at a price of RM8.73 per share.